[USML Announce] XFL according to Alex Patton

[jhwinick at aol.com]

This is really for Andy Klein, but I thought others might be interested.? Its Alex Patton's evaluation of the 2008 XFL race:


Research and Analysis

Alex Patton -- March 5

X's and O's in the XFL

Who's going to win the eXperts' Fantasy League this year? In no particular order... let's start with Ron. 





























Listing of Hitters - Shandler- (sorted by position and name).











I

Last

Pos

AB

R

HR

RBI

SB

OBP

$

Sal

F

+/-



C

Iannetta

C

208

32

7

37

0

0.336

5

8

?

-3



J

Towles

C

259

17

8

59

3

0.329

8

12

?

-4



R

Howard

1B

542

95

48

133

0

0.372

25

10

*

15



D

Young

1B

389

48

14

60

1

0.342

12

11

?

1



D

Pedroia

2B

543

86

13

61

8

0.358

19

7

*

12



B

Roberts

2B

568

91

13

60

37

0.373

28

21

*

7



G

Atkins

3B

571

87

22

106

2

0.373

24

32

?

-8



T

Glaus

3B

405

67

26

73

2

0.357

15

13

?

2



J

Uribe

SS

371

42

15

54

2

0.281

7

1

?

6



R

Ankiel

OF

276

46

17

63

2

0.279

10

4

?

6



C

Granderson

OF

562

108

20

66

17

0.343

23

10

*

13



B

Hawpe

OF

574

80

26

107

3

0.375

22

11

*

11



J

Pierre

OF

572

76

1

36

49

0.323

25

21

?

4



A

Rowand

OF

517

78

17

66

10

0.324

18

14

*

4



?

Team total

?

6357

953

247

981

136

0.346

241

175

?

66





Hitters with asterisks after their salaries are frozen players. The rest Ron bought back in November in the XFL auction that is held each year in Phoenix during the Arizona Fall League symposium. The XFL is a bit of an odd duck: a 15-team mixed league, using nine of the standard 5x5 categories and substituting on-base percent for batting average. What makes it odd and thoroughly delightful is that wonkish preparation isn't just discouraged, it's effectively forbidden: owners aren't allowed to bring any lists of their own to the table. Everyone gets a copy of the latest BBHQ depth chart for each league, and that's it. 

So, now that we've got that settled, how did Ron do on the hitting side? 

Whose stats are these anyway? They aren't last year's, that's for sure, and they can't be Ron's projections, because there's no way he spends $20 on catchers that between them aren't going to get 500 AB. 

They are Peter Kreutzer's projections in this year's edition of Patton $ On Disk, and they are the ones I'll be using in this article; because, well, you've already bought Ron's projections. 

Under $ is what Peter's projected stats are worth in my 5x5 AL formulas. 

And not mixed league, for the following reason. 

No one has ever been able to figure out a decent mixed-league formula. 

Yep. It's true. In more than 20 years, it hasn't happened. Mixed league pricing is completely different. The simple, linear calculations that I use for my AL and NL-only pricing in 4x4 and 5x5 leagues don't work for mixed leagues. The more sophisticated math that is needed is completely beyond me. I can tell at glance it's beyond others who, compared to me, are whizzes in math, by simply looking at the numbers that they generate. 

Flip open your copy of the Rotowire Fantasy Baseball Guide 2008. I know you have it, and I know it's getting kind of dog-eared by now, because it's loaded with good stuff (best is John Sickels' Top 100 Prospects). Turn to page 41. 

Mixed-league price 5x5 for David Wright: $32. NL 4x4 price for David Wright: $37. 

They've got it totally turned around. 

The person who first made me aware of this is my partner in the XFL, Peter Kreutzer. 

Six years ago, when Ron cooked up the idea for the XFL, I declined the invitation to join, on the grounds that I didn't know one single thing about mixed leagues, and Peter accepted. Since I was attending the symposium, I offered to track money for Peter at the draft, if he thought that would be a help. Peter informed me that one of the rules of this league, in addition to the no-list rule, was that only one person could sit at the table. Good news, as far as I was concerned, because there was an AFL game that night. 

The draft was scheduled for Saturday evening and on Saturday morning Peter happened to check his airline ticket. It said his flight back to New York was at 6 PM. On Saturday. 

That didn't leave me a whole lot of time to prepare. Peter said it's okay, no one else has prepared. I said, at least give me your lists. That's when I learned lists weren't allowed. 

Okay, I said, give me the names of players you like and I'll try to buy a few, so at least you have a team you like when it finishes last. 

He said, I've never liked a team that finishes last. 

Peter, I said, just tell me who to buy. 

He said, Buy A-Rod. 

Excuse me? 

Buy A-Rod. 

He said A-Rod was the best player, he was going to be so much better than the pretty good players, who were going to be only a little better than the $1 players (the XFL had only 12 teams in its first season), that I should just buy him. 

Just buy him? 

Just buy him. 

Are you sure? 

He was sure. Him and Vlad. 

Oh. Vlad too? I was supposed to buy them both? For how much, pray tell? 

Whatever it takes, said Peter. 

Vlad came up first and he went quickly to $40. He went quickly to $50. He went to $51, and I said $52. The same obnoxious person (the rest of the room was now sitting there in stunned silence) said $53. I said $54. 

He said $55. 

I said $56. He was mine. 

The room burst into derisive applause. 

After a long discussion, I had a pretty good handle on Peter's thinking and I knew he was right. I saw him smiling on his airplane. 

Keep taunting folks? you'll see. 

Sadly, the same obnoxious fellow (Perry Van Hook) quickly took A-Rod to $56. He dared me to say $57. I chickened out. 

But thereafter it was Perry who chickened out. The next highest price he paid for anyone was $26. I bought Barry for $49 and Abreu for $35 ? all three of these before the end of the second round ? whereupon someone suggested that I leave the room and come back in a couple of hours. 

Instead I kicked back, crossed off names on the depth chart as players were nominated, and wrote down the prices next to the names when the bidding stopped. 

Luis Castillo $23 

Jeff Kent $33 

Sammy Sosa $39 

Mike Sweeney $26 

Aaron Boone $21 

Troy Glaus $32 

Eventually I was back in the game ? getting Mike Lowell for $12, Preston Wilson for $14 ? and spent my last $1 for Frank Thomas. 

I'm reminded, as I look at the rosters, that the draft didn't start out so hot for me. Doug Dennis opened the auction by nominating Francisco Rodriguez, I said $2, and in a matter of seconds learned that everybody else in the room realized there was no place for middle relievers, not even K-Rod, in 5x5. The first player in the first draft went to me. 

I had my revenge by buying all starters from then on, skipping closers, as we had originally planned. The Patton/Kreutzer combo (Peter handled the supplemental reserve draft in March and did a nice job) stumbled a bit out of the gate, moved into first in May and was never seriously threatened. 

I digress. Shall we look at another set of projections? 





Listing of Hitters - Moyer- (sorted by position and name).

?

?

?

?



I

Last

Pos

AB

R

HR

RBI

SB

OBP

$

Sal

F

+/-



R

Martin

C

442

76

12

69

15

0.372

20

7

*

13



G

Soto

C

362

52

12

68

0

0.338

10

7

?

3



R

Garko

1B

524

77

22

86

0

0.347

19

4

?

15



A

Pujols

1B

568

117

41

120

8

0.426

36

58

?

-22



L

Castillo

2B

521

82

3

39

18

0.366

18

9

?

9



R

Weeks

2B

467

89

15

46

24

0.345

17

10

*

7



J

Fields

3B

351

50

14

54

11

0.322

12

4

*

8



A

Gordon

3B

574

76

21

72

17

0.318

18

4

*

14



D

Jeter

SS

624

106

15

78

19

0.382

30

33

?

-3



M

Alou

OF

382

59

19

65

3

0.379

19

5

?

14



C

Crisp

OF

522

78

10

56

22

0.336

19

9

?

10



J

Damon

OF

550

102

14

68

22

0.364

24

21

?

3



M

Kemp

OF

508

92

23

86

15

0.347

27

7

*

20



H

Pence

OF

562

81

27

86

14

0.343

25

4

*

21



?

Team total

?

6957

1137

248

993

188

0.358

294

182

?

112





These are the hitters that Steve Moyer froze (*) and bought in the auction last November. The number in the $ column is what Peter Kreutzer's stat projection is worth in 5x5 AL-only leagues, according to my calculations. The $ value can also be calculated by the NL-only formula; because league differences aren't that great anymore (when the NL pitchers' hitting stats are removed), the values don't change much at all. In either set of formulas, the prices add up to standard AL 12-team or NL 13-team budgets; thus they total much higher for leagues that have both AL and NL players. 

What jumps out, of course, is the price for Pujols. 

Insane? I certainly don't think so. Steve clearly has a better hitting team than Ron and the reason can be spelled out in six letters. 

My clunky formulas say Pujols will earn a mere $36 this year, and this is correct: in non-mixed leagues where the $1 player is such a sorry specimen. But when you're in a league where you can buy Ryan Garko for $4 and Moises Alou for $5, don't you have some extra cash to spend on Albert? 

When you've got Russell Martin and Hunter Pence locked up for $11, you for sure do. 





Listing of Hitters - Dennis- (sorted by position and name).

?

?

?

?



I

Last

Pos

AB

R

HR

RBI

SB

OBP

$

Sal

F

+/-



V

Martinez

C

549

76

20

94

0

0.379

21

27

?

-6



J

Posada

C

434

67

19

76

2

0.386

17

21

*

-4



A

Gonzalez

1B

532

78

23

78

0

0.345

18

11

*

7



J

Morneau

1B

585

85

30

112

1

0.344

22

13

*

9



R

Cano

2B

564

81

17

82

3

0.339

20

14

*

6



D

Uggla

2B

627

110

29

90

4

0.323

20

7

*

13



E

Encarnaci

3B

512

69

18

82

8

0.329

17

10

*

7



C

Guillen

SS

475

77

15

69

12

0.375

22

19

?

3



J

Bay

OF

555

94

29

96

12

0.366

25

22

?

3



P

Burrell

OF

475

75

29

98

0

0.397

18

21

*

-3



M

Cameron

OF

389

61

15

54

15

0.339

15

3

?

12



M

Diaz

OF

311

37

8

36

4

0.349

12

3

?

9



A

Dunn

OF

546

103

40

100

7

0.373

22

25

*

-3



F

Thomas

DH

360

52

25

77

0

0.368

15

5

?

10



?

Team total

?

6914

1065

317

1144

68

0.358

264

201

?

63





This is the defending champ, BBHQ's own Doug Dennis. 

Does it make sense to freeze Jorge Posada at $21 and Adam Dunn at $25? 

Absolutely! Somewhat belatedly, my fellow XFLers are cottoning to the fact that prices is mixed leaguers are not linear. When you can buy Mike Cameron and Mike Diaz in the end game for $3 each, what does that tell you about the front game and the mid game? 

Getting ready to write this article, I sent everyone a questionnaire. To my question, who was your best buy? Dennis responded, ?Maybe Victor Martinez. Overpriced, but you need stud catchers in this league ? at least I am convinced of that.? 

Not just you, Doug. Look at what Ron spent for Towles and Iannetta. Look at what Steve spent for Soto. The reason is math that is within my grasp: when 15 teams need 30 catchers, one of them is going to get stuck with Gregg Zaun. 





Listing of Hitters - Drooker- (sorted by position and name).

?

?

?

?



I

Last

Pos

AB

R

HR

RBI

SB

OBP

$

Sal

F

+/-



B

Molina

C

405

38

16

63

0

0.311

12

6

?

6



J

Varitek

C

386

53

16

59

1

0.354

10

8

?

2



M

Teixeira

1B

573

96

34

116

2

0.378

26

25

*

1



I

Kinsler

2B

478

88

19

70

18

0.344

21

7

*

14



M

Cabrera

3B

568

99

30

112

4

0.403

31

25

*

6



C

Jones

3B

436

89

26

88

5

0.417

25

20

?

5



K

Greene

SS

511

69

20

78

5

0.297

13

14

?

-1



E

Byrnes

OF

545

80

19

69

28

0.319

22

14

*

8



J

Francoeur

OF

623

84

25

102

4

0.315

21

10

*

11



J

Hamilton

OF

343

60

22

54

3

0.338

14

4

*

10



A

Kearns

OF

482

74

19

72

4

0.344

14

17

?

-3



N

Markakis

OF

539

104

18

89

9

0.364

24

7

*

17



L

Milledge

OF

389

55

10

49

15

0.34

16

3

?

13



B

Upton

OF

448

73

17

64

23

0.369

22

13

*

9



?

Team total

?

6726

1062

291

1085

121

0.351

271

173

?

98





Don Drooker's hitting roster. His assessment is interesting. 

On the question How would you rank your freeze list: ?1) The Dux freeze list was definitely in the top third. The team had the most offensive points last year and the core is still there...Teixeira, Upton, Cabrera, Kinsler,?Byrnes, Francouer, Markakis, etc. - also two good SP's and a cheap closer.? 

Starting pitchers? Closers? Subject for another time. 

On the hitting side, he was very disciplined: no Albert Pujols for him. 

Everyone pays attention to catcher scarcity. We've seen that. So how the devil did he get Bengie Molina for $6 and Jason Varitek for $8? 

In a year in which he calculated the inflation to be ?20-25% for hitting, slightly less for pitching,? how did he get Khalil Greene for $14? 

I agree with Peter's OPS projection for Khalil Greene, but man, those power numbers are tame. 

Even if Chipper does get only 436 AB, he was a hell of a buy, hell of a buy. In mixed leagues ? especially ones with 17-round reserve drafts and unlimited ups and downs all season ? you can always plug someone else in. 

Lots of people think durability counts even more in mixed leagues. They have it all wrong. 

Here's a good example. 





Listing of Hitters - Ambrosius- (sorted by position and name).

?

?

?

?



I

Last

Pos

AB

R

HR

RBI

SB

OBP

$

Sal

F

+/-



J

Estrada

C

291

27

6

39

0

0.306

7

4

?

3



K

Suzuki

C

264

37

6

41

0

0.321

5

4

*

1



C

Delgado

1B

547

83

33

109

1

0.352

21

15

?

6



J

Kent

2B

475

78

21

82

3

0.369

19

11

?

8



A

Iwamura

3B

522

82

23

70

9

0.376

23

4

*

19



R

Zimmerman

3B

553

79

18

86

6

0.341

19

17

*

2



J

Reyes

SS

667

112

13

65

67

0.346

38

25

*

13



J

Rollins

SS

627

115

20

70

36

0.336

31

28

*

3



R

Baldelli

OF

242

36

10

33

7

0.316

9

2

?

7



B

Bonds

OF

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

?

-1



K

Griffey

OF

325

51

21

58

1

0.361

13

9

?

4



T

Hunter

OF

505

80

24

86

18

0.333

23

26

?

-3



C

Maybin

OF

299

59

6

45

25

0.321

12

2

?

10



G

Sheffield

DH

394

75

21

72

12

0.37

20

16

?

4



?

Team total

?

5711

914

222

856

185

0.345

240

164

?

76





It looks like Greg Ambrosius is going to crap out on Barry. 

But if he doesn't, Greg will go up five or six places in OBP alone. 

If Barry can't find a job, here are a few of the outfielders who will available in the supplemental draft: Michael Bourn, Emil Brown, David DeJesus, Chris Denorfia, Jim Edmunds, Luis Gonzalez, Franklin Gutierrez, Geoff Jenkins, Cliff Floyd, Jacque Jones? 

Baldelli, Griffey, Sheffield, ? highly productive when they're playing, easily replaced when they're not. What looks like a high-risk strategy by Greg is simply playing the game ? this particular mixed-league game, with its 17-player taxi squad ? the way it oughta be played. 

How should it not be played? The consensus of those who responded to my questionnaire was that the following team made the single worst buy in the draft: 





Listing of Hitters - Feldman- (sorted by position and name).

?

?

?

?



I

Last

Pos

AB

R

HR

RBI

SB

OBP

$

Sal

F

+/-



M

Barrett

C

266

30

10

36

0

0.322

7

6

?

1



B

McCann

C

419

49

18

77

1

0.35

16

21

?

-5



C

Kotchman

1B

467

62

17

69

2

0.34

14

6

*

8



A

LaRoche2

3B

354

62

16

59

5

0.351

13

4

*

9



T

Wigginton

3B

404

52

19

60

2

0.328

13

6

*

7



O

Cabrera

SS

600

81

8

72

21

0.332

20

13

?

7



Y

Escobar

SS

425

57

5

43

7

0.341

10

12

?

-2



R

Church

OF

434

56

16

68

6

0.346

14

6

*

8



C

Crawford

OF

615

95

15

80

52

0.341

37

30

*

7



C

Lee

OF

633

95

34

118

14

0.346

29

46

?

-17



F

Pie

OF

498

73

13

55

18

0.305

15

4

*

11



J

Willingham

OF

469

73

25

82

6

0.365

19

7

*

12



B

Butler

DH

473

69

18

87

1

0.36

17

4

*

13



J

Votto

1B

365

50

12

56

13

0.362

15

4

*

11



?

Team total

?

6422

904

226

962

148

0.342

239

169

?

70





What possessed Brian Feldman to spend $46 on Carlos Lee? 

Answer: his freeze list. 

The better question is when did he pay $46 for Carlos Lee, and the answer to that is, very late in the draft. 

He didn't volunteer to pay this amount in a fit of generosity. Somebody made him, so what we know is ? even after $58 was paid for Albert Pujols at the beginning of the auction ? there was ton of money left at the end. 

I'm sure Brian would tell us he was prepared to go higher; when he filled his final roster spot, he had $7 left over. 

Here's the hitting roster of the team that did in fact end up with Gregg Zaun: 





Listing of Hitters - Walton- (sorted by position and name).

?

?

?

?



I

Last

Pos

AB

R

HR

RBI

SB

OBP

$

Sal

F

+/-



C

Ruiz

C

366

39

7

53

5

0.326

8

6

?

2



G

Zaun

C

358

49

11

52

1

0.35

8

1

?

7



D

Lee

1B

513

92

29

84

11

0.4

29

29

?

0



F

Sanchez

2B

535

71

14

66

2

0.322

14

11

?

3



K

Kouzmanof

3B

557

63

22

88

1

0.318

15

6

*

9



D

Wright

3B

586

103

28

108

24

0.395

35

13

*

22



F

Lopez

SS

501

74

12

52

23

0.337

18

6

?

12



E

Renteria

SS

556

93

11

64

12

0.351

19

15

?

4



M

Ordonez

OF

521

83

21

101

2

0.379

24

32

*

-8



W

Taveras

OF

571

88

2

32

38

0.33

23

10

*

13



M

Teahen

OF

550

83

13

73

12

0.342

18

11

*

7



V

Wells

OF

631

88

26

98

12

0.329

22

21

?

1



C

Young

OF

469

83

25

66

26

0.315

22

7

*

15



J

Giambi

DH

361

64

27

77

1

0.376

15

3

?

12



?

Team total

?

7075

1073

248

1014

170

0.348

270

171

?

99





Brian Walton's assessment of his freezes: 

?No one likes to call their kids ugly, but my freeze list is clearly in the bottom half and probably bottom third. That is consistent with where I finished last season ? at the end of the middle third. 

?Because of the lack of a strong minor league pipeline, I kept solid veterans with only moderate upside ? guys like Magglio Ordonez ($32), Mark Teahen ($11) and Jason Isringhausen ($11). Not embarrassing players at the price, but I'd rather have been able to protect more $7 Adam Wainwrights and Justin Verlanders.? 

Brian's even one of the few people who figured out inflation (remember that this auction takes place in November, when people are in Phoenix to have a good time, see their pals, watch a whole bunch of prospects play while sitting in prime seats in empty stadiums, and not be wonks): ?? for me coming into the draft, it was about 34%.? 

Did everyone catch that? 

Brian looked carefully enough at everyone else's freezes to conclude that he had one of the worst freeze lists in the league. And he still figured the inflation factor for him was 34%. 

How big is 34%? If you think Derrek Lee is worth $29 in a start-up draft, with your freezes, you can go all the way to $39 before you reach the breaking point. 

Brian rostered Derrek Lee at the par price (in a conservative set of projections, if you ask me) in a non-freeze NL-only draft. 

Derek Lee may have been the steal of the draft. Or was it Vernon Wells? 

Or was it ? ? Was it ? ? Gregg Zaun? How many catchers can you name who have a .344 career on-base percent? 

Say what you will, Brian took an unprepossessing bunch of freezes and put together a heck of an offense, even in a less-than-rosy set of projections. 

He also made some nice pitching buys (Carlos Zambrano $21, Ben Sheets $15, Ubaldo Jimenez $6) to back up his $7 Adam Wainwright and $7 Justin Verlander. And had a dollar left over. 

The team with far and away the fewest freezes in the auction last fall: 





Listing of Hitters - Patton/Kreutzer- (sorted by position and name).

?

?

?

?



I

Last

Pos

AB

R

HR

RBI

SB

OBP

$

Sal

F

+/-



M

Olivo

C

287

31

10

38

3

0.261

5

3

?

2



A

Pierzynsk

C

500

62

17

59

1

0.305

12

8

?

4



L

Overbay

1B

538

74

18

73

3

0.352

16

13

?

3



R

Sexson

1B

551

81

33

101

1

0.332

17

10

?

7



K

Youkilis

1B

484

81

12

68

4

0.38

15

15

?

0



J

Lopez

2B

509

58

8

66

4

0.278

9

2

?

7



M

Mora

3B

523

77

18

71

8

0.341

17

3

?

14



J

Hardy

SS

491

67

18

65

1

0.316

12

6

*

6



H

Ramirez

SS

547

98

16

60

40

0.353

31

7

*

24



B

Abreu

OF

558

104

18

99

28

0.395

29

34

?

-5



B

Giles

OF

408

63

11

54

7

0.376

13

3

?

10



V

Guerrero

OF

591

91

32

121

10

0.389

33

44

?

-11



C

Patterson

OF

479

65

13

46

34

0.289

19

6

?

13



R

Winn

OF

521

67

13

54

12

0.34

17

8

?

9



?

Team total

?

6987

1019

237

975

156

0.341

245

162

?

83





We had a grand total of two pitching freezes (Danny Haren $10, Jose Valverde $16). 

I probably should have mentioned at the beginning that the way we manage our contracts is simplicity itself. 

?Retained players must have their salary level increased by $5 each year, with the exception of players originally drafted as farm players whose salary would increase by $3 each year.? 

Peter bought J.J. Hardy last year for $1, so he's $6 this year and will be $11 next year. 

Hanley Ramirez was originally drafted as a farm player on Ron Shandler's reserve roster, then was traded to us in 2005, when Ron was going for the roses and we were out of it (otherwise known as a dump trade). In his rookie season he became a $1 player, last year his salary went to $4, this year he costs $7, next year he'll cost $10. 

It's a gift that we repaid Ron the following year by sending him Ryan Howard, who at that point cost us a mere $4, in a dump trade going the other way. Ron had him last year for $7, has him this year for $10, and will have him next year for $13. 

Neither dump trade worked. In 2005 Ron finished third. In 2006 we finished third. 

What's nice about this rule is that players like A-Rod and Albert are going to be available every year. What's not nice is that Ron, Peter and I will be in nursing homes before anyone else gets to bid on Ryan Howard or Hanley Ramirez. 

In any event, we basically had a one-man reserve list going into this year's auction. It's more accurate to say Peter did, since I didn't get to Phoenix this year. 

Do I like the hitters he bought? 

Are you kidding? Do you? 

If Richie Sexson hits 33 homers this year and knocks in 100 runs, I'll fall over in a faint. I don't know what Peter's fixation is with Cory Patterson, but I don't share it. 

Peter was kind enough to answer the questionnaire that I sent to everyone. A selection of his answers: 

2) Who had the best freeze list? 

?Moyer.? ? 

4) What did you see as the single best freeze in the league? 

?Maybe Hanley. Ryan Braun at $4 is sweet.? 

5) What did you calculate the inflation factor to be? (The exact number, if you're one of those types, otherwise just ballpark.) 

?Impossible to say. The prices are much too fluid.? 

6) What do you see as your best buy in the auction? 

?Roy Halladay for $25. Not a great deal, but you have to have a frontline pitcher and he's a good one.? 

7) Your worst? 

?Too many to count really? 

?My goal was to augment the freezes with quality players. I picked up Vladdy and Abreu and Halladay at good prices, and got what seemed to be a healthy Kelvim Escobar at a decent price. Alas, although I had the money to burn on a third star I failed to pull the trigger on Derek Jeter and Carlos Beltran, who went for good prices, because they weren't the perfect profile for me (too much speed)? the right guy (Carlos Lee) went for more money then I had, and then prices collapsed? 

?The beauty of this league is that if Sexson sucks, Escobar stays hurt, Wandy Rodriguez, Scott Olsen, and Jose Lopez don't bloom, and some other hell falls, selling out is decisive and fun.? 

8) Most overpriced player in the draft? (Optional, if you're afraid of being punched next year in Phoenix.) 

?We could have kept Garrett Atkins at $24 or so, and he ended up going for $31. I'm not saying that's a bad price, but it's a higher price than I thought he'd have.? 

10) Who's going to win the league? 

?I don't have a clue. There are so many good keepers out there now that things will turn on who gets hurt and who gets hot. I'd like Moyer's team best if there weren't these surgery issues dogging Pujols. Plus the league's trading and sell-out rules mean that things get awfully fluid in June and July, as the contenders separate from those building for next year. That said, Trace Wood has an awesome team.? 

Trace Wood? We haven't even looked at him. 





Listing of Hitters - Wood- (sorted by position and name).

?

?

?

?



I

Last

Pos

AB

R

HR

RBI

SB

OBP

$

Sal

F

+/-



J

Mauer

C

469

69

10

66

9

0.395

19

10

*

9



D

Navarro

C

364

42

8

38

2

0.309

5

3

?

2



J

Loney

1B

457

63

13

70

2

0.342

14

7

*

7



C

Pena

1B

465

77

33

89

2

0.364

18

15

*

3



A

Casilla

2B

338

43

1

20

25

0.31

11

4

*

7



A

Ramirez

3B

546

83

33

109

1

0.354

25

29

?

-4



R

Theriot

SS

448

66

3

46

26

0.35

18

6

*

12



T

Tulowitzk

SS

563

95

20

84

8

0.339

20

12

*

8



J

Dye

OF

541

84

35

98

7

0.342

24

11

?

13



J

Guillen

OF

464

65

19

72

2

0.316

14

6

*

8



C

Hart

OF

529

84

23

80

20

0.335

24

11

*

13



A

Jones

OF

596

99

41

121

5

0.333

17

27

?

-10



G

Sizemore

OF

637

120

25

78

26

0.368

29

10

*

19



J

Upton

OF

385

64

10

63

12

0.339

14

4

*

10



?

Team total

?

6802

1054

274

1034

147

0.334

252

155

?

97





Not bad. It does get blurry, though. I mean, everybody's got a lot of hitting. The question is who has the most? 

The projected hitting stats, ranked by total points (pts showing the points in each category, ties rounded off): 





XFL

HR

pts

RBI

Pts

SB

Pts

OBP

pts

Runs

Pts

Hpts



Moyer

248

8

993

8

188

15

0.358

14

1137

15

60



Dennis

317

15

1144

15

68

2

0.358

14

1065

13

59



Drooker

291

14

1085

14

121

6

0.351

11

1062

12

57



Walton

248

8

1014

10

170

13

0.348

9

1073

14

54



Van Hook

256

10

1030

11

141

9

0.353

12

1041

10

52



Wood

274

12

1034

12

147

10

0.345

5

1054

11

50



Winick

279

13

1044

13

67

1

0.35

10

1014

8

45



Wilton

262

11

993

8

140

8

0.342

3

959

5

35



P/K

237

6

975

6

156

12

0.341

1

1019

9

34



Shandler

247

7

981

7

136

7

0.346

7

953

4

32



Menna

219

1

941

3

113

5

0.355

13

1010

7

29



Feldman

226

4

962

5

148

11

0.342

3

904

1

24



Ambrosius

222

2

856

1

185

14

0.345

5

914

2

24



Michaels

224

3

945

4

105

3

0.346

7

993

6

23



Zola

227

5

934

2

111

4

0.341

1

936

3

15



?

3777

?

14931

?

1996

?

0.348

?

15134

?

?





In a league of awesome offenses, in Peter's projections, Moyer's is the most awesome. 

To fulfill Peter's overall prediction, Wood better have an awesome pitching staff. 





XFL

W

pts

Svs

pts

ERA

pts

WHIP

pts

SO

pts

Ppts



Drooker

76

12

91

14

3.67

14

1.25

11

1303

9

60



Winick

86

15

35

3

3.72

11

1.23

14

1441

15

58



Dennis

80

14

39

5

3.97

6

1.22

15

1342

12

52



Moyer

77

13

36

4

3.72

12

1.26

8

1399

14

51



Wilton

71

7

76

12

3.71

13

1.26

10

1272

6

48



Van Hook

75

10

51

7

3.90

9

1.23

13

1293

8

47



Zola

72

8

66

9

3.58

15

1.24

12

1185

1

45



Wood

65

2

80

13

3.90

10

1.26

9

1309

10

44



P/K

75

10

45

6

3.96

7

1.29

6

1352

13

42



Walton

75

10

58

8

3.92

8

1.31

4

1236

3

33



Feldman

69

4

93

15

4.02

3

1.32

2

1281

7

31



Menna

69

4

68

10

3.98

4

1.36

1

1242

5

24



Shandler

70

6

24

2

3.98

5

1.26

7

1236

3

23



Ambrosius

65

2

72

11

4.06

2

1.31

5

1195

2

22



Michaels

65

2

12

1

4.07

1

1.32

3

1334

11

18



?

1090

?

846

?

3.88

?

1.27

?

19420

?

?





He doesn't. Drooker has the best pitching. 

Moyer's strong. But hey, Drooker was strong in hitting. Who's going to win this thing? 

We haven't shown ties, remember, so just because you're good at adding things in your head, don't think you've already figured it out. 

Drum roll.. Final standings, according to Peter Kreutzer's projections, in the XFL this year... 





XFL 2008

PTS





Don Drooker

117





Steve Moyer

113





Doug Dennis

112





Jeff Winick

103





Perry Van Hook

99





Trace Wood

94.5





Brian Walton

88





Rick Wilton

84





Patton/Kreutzer

76.5





Todd Zola

60.5





Brian Feldman

56





Ron Shandler

56





John Menna

53.5





Greg Ambrosius

46.5





Lawr Michaels

41.5







Yep, you figured it out. Steve Moyer has a nice team, Doug Dennis strives mightily to defend his crown, two-time champion Jeff Winick sneaks into the money, but when all is said and done, Don Drooker wins easily. 

Now, there are some caveats, I admit. These are the hypothetical final standings: the standings if there were no changes in our rosters after the auction that was held way back in November. And there will be plenty of changes. Unlimited ups and downs between our 23-man active rosters and 17-player reserve lists which, except for prospects carried over in our farm systems, haven't even been determined yet. At the beginning of every month there will be a snake draft, in which teams can dump their three least appealing players ? send them straight to the Mexican League ? and pick up three more. There will be trades. There, inevitably, as Peter has pointed out, will be dump trades: a so-far unrancorous tradition in a league that was supposed to be an antidote to the nasty leagues that all of us play in. Unrancorous, in large part, if not in whole, because we play for hypothetical money. 

These are the little caveats. The big one is that all of the above are projected stats. 

Next year, it's pretty obvious what my topic should be. Maybe I'll throw Ron's projections into the software and see what kind of finish he projected. 

Will the projected finishes be very different? That would be interesting. 

Hopefully, if the projections that Peter and I are selling this year end up looking bad, I'll at least be able to brag about how we finished. 

Full details on how to buy the 2008 edition of Patton $ On Disk are at Peter's web site: www.askrotoman.com. To join a truly unique forum that talks about baseball 24/7 ? and is free ? you'll want to visit www.pattonandco.com. For the diehards who insist there really is a Stage 4, or at least a formula for generating reasonable mixed-league prices, there's www.alexpatton.com, which is also free. 
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