[USML Announce] Ron and Me

Tue Aug 24 17:32:32 EDT 2010

so...the lesson is: don't deal with jeffrey?

On Tue, Aug 24, 2010 at 4:45 PM, Jeffrey Winick <jhwinick at aol.com> wrote:

> Ron Shandler's Fanalytics August 20, 2010
> ------------------------------
>
> O' No!
> It all started a little over a year ago.
> I was in rebuilding mode in the eXperts Fantasy League (XFL<http://www.fantasyxperts.com/>)
> and pulled off the following deal with Lawr Michaels:
>
> *I sent him Lance Berkman. He sent me Chase Headley, Chris Tillman and
> Travis Hafner.*
>
> Hafner was a throwaway, but the other two were both potential keepers for
> 2010. Headley was a top-rated prospect who had scuttled about getting his
> feet wet in the majors for a season and a half. Tillman was amidst a minor
> league season in which he'd post a 2.75 ERA with a 3.8 Cmd ratio and an MLE
> BPV of 117.
> Tillman struggled upon his promotion to Baltimore the following month,
> going 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA and meager 1.6 Cmd ratio. But he was only 21.
> Still a keeper.
> The annual XFL auction takes place at First Pitch Arizona<http://www.baseballhq.com/seminars/arizona.shtml>each November. I went into last year's draft with what I thought was a solid
> protection list, led by Jason Heyward, Austin Jackson and Brett Anderson
> (And Headley. And Tillman.). All I needed to do was have a decent draft.
> A $34 Carlos Beltran is about all you need to know about how 2010 has gone.
> So we've gone back to rebuilding, year #2.
> On June 7, I made the following deal with Todd Zola:
>
> *I sent him Joakim Soria. He sent me Brian Matusz.*
>
> Now, Matusz was not having the best of years. He scraped through April with
> a 4.40 ERA, then saw his once stellar BPV plummet to 27 in May. But this was
> a highly-touted prospect who was coming off a minor league season where he
> went 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 3.8 Cmd ratio. His 4.63 ERA in 2009's MLB
> debut was backed by a solid 2.7 Cmd and 71 BPV. I momentarily considered the
> implications of rostering two Orioles pitching prospects... but only
> momentarily.
> As I continued to sink in the standings (and wasn't Matusz's July a hoot!),
> I put out another call to the top contenders in the league to try to unload
> some of my valuable, but unprotectable players.
> Battling for first place, Jeff Winick was interested in my Paul Konerko. He
> wrote me: "It's probably easier for me to trade a March pick rather than
> someone presently contributing, but I'll do anything that makes my team
> better."
> If I was smart, I would have heeded that comment, if for no other reason
> than to protect me from myself. But Jeff had one player who was simply too
> intriguing to resist.
> Jake Arrieta.
> Before I would commit this act of insanity, I sent off an email to our
> minor league expert, Rob Gordon. I wrote: "I already own Chris Tillman and
> Brian Matusz in a keeper league. I have an opportunity to add Jake Arrieta
> at a low cost. Would this be the epitome of masochism or does this trio have
> a real chance of becoming as productive as their advanced hype would
> indicate? Should I roll the dice with the two O's I already have and look
> for something else other than a third Baltimore starter?"
> You see, I was at least a little bit smart. Just a little.
> But I was also a little impatient. While I waited for Rob to respond, I
> emailed Jeff to see if Arrieta was even available. I framed the email as
> being "just this side of madness."
> On August 10, Rob finally responded:
> "My take is that this would be a tough call. All three have very good
> long-term potential, but also plenty of work to do. Adding Arrieta seems
> like a bit of a risk. That gives you three fairly volatile young pitchers
> and Arrieta probably has the most work to do of the three. Matusz is
> probably the furthest along the development curve, but is far from a
> finished product. Tillman and Arrieta need to throw more strikes, trust
> their stuff, and hit their spots. No small feat vs the Yankees, Rays, Red
> Sox, and Jays. The upshot of having all three of them - despite the
> tremendous potential - is a ton of risk."
> Ah, but Rob was just sugar-coating things. His *true* feelings came out in
> his next statement:
> "Are there other players you can look at - possibly a position player?"
> For me, Konerko was a useless player on a roster looking towards 2011.
> Getting Arrieta for him would at least be *something.* I asked Rob to dig
> deep and find anything good to say. He fed me the company line...
> "It seems to me the logical counter-argument is you'll have three
> tremendously talented young arms and that historically one or two of them
> will develop into a legit top-of-the-rotation guy. Having cheap arms with
> upside allows you to spend freely on expensive hitting. Since pitching is
> volatile anyway, why buy an expensive starter..."
> He was placating me. I needed that.
> The real problem was that this conversation occurred on August 10.
> On August 9, Jeff had already tossed me into the abyss:
>
> *I sent him Paul Konerko. He sent me Jake Arrieta.*
>
> So here I am with a trio of potentially high upside starting pitchers on a
> terrible ballclub. But there is always good news if you look hard enough for
> it. From the *Minor League Baseball Analyst*:
>
>                                  '09 MLE Performance
>             Rating  Potential    Ctl  Dom  Cmd  BPV  *Rank
>             ======  ==========   ===  ===  ===  ===  =====
> Arrieta,J     8B    #3 starter   3.5  7.4  2.1   52    26
> Matusz,B      9B    #1 starter   2.3  7.6  3.3  106     2
> Tillman,C     9C    #2 starter   2.3  8.5  3.7  117     9
>  * Rank among all pitching prospects
>
> In retrospect, the Arrieta acquisition now seems a bit more ill-advised.
> And, the rest of the story...
>
>              Major League Record                    Keeper
>              W   L   IP   ERA   Ctl  Dom  Cmd  BPV  Price
>             ==  ==  ===  ====   ===  ===  ===  ===  ======
> Arrieta,J    4   4   72  5.23   5.0  4.2  0.8  -40    $4
> Matusz,B     9  14  174  5.11   3.4  7.1  2.1   49    $7
> Tillman,C    3   9   90  6.10   3.7  5.1  1.4    8    $7
>
> Heck, if a Major League ballclub is content to bank their future on the
> potential of this trio, why shouldn't I feel likewise? Yes, the easy answer
> is "because it's the Orioles." But there is clearly some upside here.
> And I can't forget these illustrious pitching lines:
>
>              W   L   IP   ERA
>             ==  ==  ===  ====
> Pitcher A    3   7   81  5.09
> Pitcher B    2   3   86  6.49
> Pitcher C    6  14  155  5.61
> Pitcher D    2   7   64  5.48
>
> Who owned these horrible stats? These were the rookie seasons of (in order)
> Chris Carpenter, Johan Santana, Greg Maddux and John Smoltz.
> There is hope yet.
> Maybe.
>
>
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