[USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux

Sun Mar 3 15:52:56 EST 2019

OK - taken as a "friendly amendment" to Option B.

Again, I vote for Option A.

-Andy

On Sun, Mar 3, 2019 at 3:48 PM Jeffrey Winick <jwinick at hwhlegal.com> wrote:

> Andy,
>
> I think that a vote of this sort is a great idea. However, the website
> only supports Saves + Holds/2. So I’d strongly recommend that we vote on
> that alternative.
>
> Jeffrey H. Winick
> Harris Winick Harris LLP
> 333 West Wacker Drive
> Suite 2060
> Chicago, IL 60606
> (312) 662-4602
> (312) 841-2817 (cell)
>
> On Mar 3, 2019, at 2:43 PM, Andy Klein <anrklein at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Starting again with the caveat that this is not an end-of-the world issue,
> I'm taking one more swing at this.
>
> It seems we have a clear majority in favor of including holds in some
> fashion in our scoring system in 2020.  I propose a vote on one of two
> alternatives.
>
> A.  Holds + Saves
> B  Holds + 2XSaves
>
> In the past, we haven't changed rules unless we have a strong majority in
> favor.  Commissioners ... can we vote and see where we stand?  Knowing the
> outcome could have an impact on bidding this year.
>
> -Andy
>
> PS:  I vote for option A - Saves + Holds. :)
>
> On Wed, Feb 13, 2019 at 12:33 PM Andy Klein <anrklein at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> In the end, this is not a huge issue to me, regardless of whether we
>> stick with S, go to S+H or 2S+H.  But it's kind of interesting, and I enjoy
>> procrastinating during the lunch hour by looking at it!
>>
>> I suppose you could find odd comparisons either way, but I still like S+H
>> better.  Doubling the value of saves retains the huge value gap between 9th
>> inning pitchers and others, and does much less to reduce the dynamic that
>> encourages our artificial chasing of the "closer carousel."  So, to me,
>> it's not just the relative rankings in the spreadsheets that Frank
>> created.  It's the gap.  Here's one example.  When you double the value of
>> saves, Shane Greene collects twice as many counting points as stronger
>> pitchers like Colome, Robertson, and Betances.  With S+H, Greene still
>> ranks higher, getting the "bump" for being a 9th inning guy.  But the gap
>> is much narrower.  That's a much better outcome in my view.
>>
>> As for some odd names showing up high in the S+H rankings (Alvarado, Roe,
>> Trivino), that just reflects our longstanding bias.  They are "no-names" to
>> us because our scoring system doesn't place any value on what they do even
>> though they are good pitchers.
>>
>> -Andy
>>
>> On Tue, Feb 12, 2019 at 12:57 PM springkerb--- via Announce <
>> announce at usml.net> wrote:
>>
>>> Not so slight.  In the Luby comparison, Alvarado jumps from 10th to
>>> 3rd.  Roe jumps from 14th to 6th.  And a bunch of nobodies after about #20
>>> go from the obscurity they deserve to real value.
>>>
>>> Mark K
>>>
>>>
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: Blocker, Mark B. <mblocker at sidley.com>
>>> To: USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
>>> Cc: springkerb at aol.com <springkerb at aol.com>
>>> Sent: Tue, Feb 12, 2019 11:49 am
>>> Subject: RE: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
>>>
>>> Point taken.  “Substantial value”?  Seems the likely impact is slight
>>> decrease in value of closers and slight increase in value of some middle
>>> relievers.
>>>
>>> *MARK B. BLOCKER*
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *SIDLEY AUSTIN LLP *+1 312 853 6097
>>> mblocker at sidley.com
>>>
>>> *From:* Announce <announce-bounces at usml.net> *On Behalf Of *springkerb---
>>> via Announce
>>> *Sent:* Tuesday, February 12, 2019 11:44 AM
>>> *To:* announce at usml.net
>>> *Cc:* springkerb at aol.com
>>> *Subject:* Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
>>>
>>> To Jim's point re multiple holds being available per game, the main
>>> thing I was trying to do w/ my approach is to value both holds and saves
>>> equally, *relative to the number of saves and holds available*.  The
>>> ratio was pretty close to 2:1 last year (actually about 2.1:1).  So if we
>>> go to a 2:1 ratio, then we'd be valuing all available holds and all
>>> available saves approximately equally.  I think if you look at Buddha's
>>> comparison, the most obvious and questionable shifts in value involve
>>> middle relievers that aren't particularly good pitchers but get a lot of
>>> appearances in the sixth or seventh inning--e.g., Chaz Roe.  To me, those
>>> guys are greatly overvalued by a 1:1 ratio.  Particularly when you get down
>>> to the guys below about the top 20, the 1:1 ratio gives substantial value
>>> to some guys who just aren't very good pitchers.
>>>
>>> Mark
>>>
>>>
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: Jim Barrett <chicagojab at gmail.com>
>>> To: USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
>>> Sent: Tue, Feb 12, 2019 10:59 am
>>> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
>>> That’s assuming that everyone’s goal is to value saves and holds equally
>>> important.  From my perspective, I’d like to recognize holds as having some
>>> value but I still view saves more important for several reasons. Like it or
>>> not but saves are an official statistic of MLB but I don’t believe holds
>>> are. Only 1 save can be given out in a game whereas more than 1 hold can be
>>> given.  Baseball is a tradition bound game more than most sports and the
>>> save and closer has the tradition behind it whereas holds do not. If we all
>>> want to go total saber, we’d get rid of Wins and BA too. So in sum if we
>>> make a change, I’m in favor of weighting saves more heavily. And no on
>>> future requests to have a WAR  or OPS+ category! :-)
>>>
>>> Jim
>>> Sent from my iPhone
>>>
>>> On Feb 12, 2019, at 9:49 AM, Blocker, Mark B. via Announce <
>>> announce at usml.net> wrote:
>>> Want to give this more thought, but I think I agree with John’s point
>>> that 2x saves puts too much emphasis on saves and defeats our goal of
>>> treating holds as equally important.
>>>
>>> Also, here are the options Onroto currently allows.  I believe the math
>>> on option two works out the same as what some have proposed on a relative
>>> basis:
>>>
>>> HOSV (Holds + Saves)
>>>
>>> SAVES2 (Saves + Holds / 2)
>>>
>>> *MARK B. BLOCKER*
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *SIDLEY AUSTIN LLP *+1 312 853 6097
>>> mblocker at sidley.com
>>>
>>> *From:* Announce <announce-bounces at usml.net> *On Behalf Of *Bill
>>> Strotman via Announce
>>> *Sent:* Tuesday, February 12, 2019 9:37 AM
>>> *To:* USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
>>> *Cc:* Bill Strotman <bbuddhas at aol.com>
>>> *Subject:* Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
>>>
>>> Who cares what’s most realistic.   It’s fantasy sports
>>>
>>> We give same weighting to SB as dingers.   That’s wrong.
>>> Sent from my iPhone
>>>
>>> On Feb 12, 2019, at 9:14 AM, Frank Luby via Announce <announce at usml.net>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Good points, Mark.
>>>
>>> This version re-sorts the right-hand data to make Mark's points clear.
>>>
>>> On Tuesday, February 12, 2019, 8:54:09 AM CST, springkerb <
>>> springkerb at aol.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>> To me, the 2x saves version does a better job of identifying pitchers
>>> who can reliably hold a lead--which I think is what we're trying to measure
>>> here.  For example, the version that values saves and holds equally says
>>> that Jose Alvarado is third in the league.  He's a good reliever, but I
>>> don't think he was more reliablelast year than Trienen or Chapman.
>>> Similarly, the equally weighted version says the Chaz Roe (Chaz Roe?) was
>>> the sixth most reliable holder of leads in the AL.  That's nuts.
>>>
>>> In general, major league managers use their best relievers later in the
>>> games, and that makes sense, since holding a lead gets more valuable later
>>> in the game.  A clean ninth inning improves the team's likelihood of
>>> winning more when there are fewer innings left to play.  So, at least to my
>>> eye, the 2x approach does a better job of rewarding better relievers.
>>>
>>> Mark
>>>
>>>
>>> Sent via the Samsung Galaxy S®6 active, an AT&T 4G LTE smartphone
>>>
>>> -------- Original message --------
>>> From: JOHN FRUIT <jtfruit at msn.com>
>>> Date: 2/12/19 5:19 AM (GMT-06:00)
>>> To: USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>, Frank Luby <
>>> zachfehsvater at yahoo.com>, Andy Klein <anrklein at gmail.com>
>>> Cc: springkerb <springkerb at aol.com>
>>> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
>>>
>>> What's apparent is that the 2x saves method seems to put even more
>>> statistical emphasis on the saves category, kinda defeating the purpose.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Sent from my Verizon, Samsung Galaxy smartphone
>>>
>>>
>>> -------- Original message --------
>>> From: springkerb via Announce <announce at usml.net>
>>> Date: 2/11/19 10:15 PM (GMT-06:00)
>>> To: Frank Luby <zachfehsvater at yahoo.com>, Andy Klein <anrklein at gmail.com>,
>>> USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
>>> Cc: springkerb <springkerb at aol.com>
>>> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
>>>
>>> Cool.  It's an interesting comparison.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Sent via the Samsung Galaxy S®6 active, an AT&T 4G LTE smartphone
>>>
>>> -------- Original message --------
>>> From: Frank Luby <zachfehsvater at yahoo.com>
>>> Date: 2/11/19 10:02 PM (GMT-06:00)
>>> To: Andy Klein <anrklein at gmail.com>, USML Announcements <
>>> announce at usml.net>
>>> Cc: springkerb <springkerb at aol.com>
>>> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
>>>
>>> To throw some data into this discussion, here are the top 50 relievers
>>> in the AL last season ranked by the SV+HLD method and the 2xSV+HLD, in a
>>> side by side comparison ...
>>>
>>> On Monday, February 11, 2019, 9:44:36 PM CST, springkerb via Announce <
>>> announce at usml.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>> I'd like you to reconsider the ratio.  There are about twice as many
>>> holds as saves. Weighting them equally would actually make the 7th and 8th
>>> inning guys more valuable than closers, which just doesn't seem right.
>>>
>>> Mark
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Sent via the Samsung Galaxy S®6 active, an AT&T 4G LTE smartphone
>>>
>>> -------- Original message --------
>>> From: Andy Klein <anrklein at gmail.com>
>>> Date: 2/11/19 7:33 PM (GMT-06:00)
>>> To: USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
>>> Cc: springkerb <springkerb at aol.com>
>>> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
>>>
>>> Nope ... we talked about it, but never voted on it.  I'm actually
>>> advocating Saves + Holds, not 2XSaves + Holds.  I'm fine with 2020
>>> implementation.  I'll wait another day and then make a formal proposal.
>>>
>>> -Andy
>>>
>>> On Mon, Feb 11, 2019 at 7:02 PM springkerb via Announce <
>>> announce at usml.net> wrote:
>>>
>>> See my other email.  Thought thiswas a done deal for this year.
>>>
>>> Mark
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Sent via the Samsung Galaxy S®6 active, an AT&T 4G LTE smartphone
>>>
>>> -------- Original message --------
>>> From: Andy Klein <anrklein at gmail.com>
>>> Date: 2/11/19 4:16 PM (GMT-06:00)
>>> To: USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
>>> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
>>>
>>> That's four quick positive responses.  Eager to hear others ... and
>>> whether people would generally prefer to implement in 2020.
>>>
>>> -Andy
>>>
>>> On Mon, Feb 11, 2019 at 5:01 PM JOHN FRUIT <jtfruit at msn.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> Yeah, Josh Hader struck out like 50 Cubs in 10+ innings of work and had
>>> nary a save.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Sent from my Verizon, Samsung Galaxy smartphone
>>>
>>>
>>> -------- Original message --------
>>> From: Frank Luby via Announce <announce at usml.net>
>>> Date: 2/11/19 3:38 PM (GMT-06:00)
>>> To: USML Announcements <announce at usml.net>
>>> Cc: Frank Luby <zachfehsvater at yahoo.com>
>>> Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
>>>
>>> What’s a closer ...?
>>>
>>> Seriously though, I’m with Andy. Gives a purpose and a strategy to those
>>> many many pitchers I refer to as DNH guys (as in “do no harm”).
>>>
>>> I would be fine with immediate implementation.
>>>
>>> - Frank
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Sent from my iPhone
>>>
>>> > On Feb 11, 2019, at 3:25 PM, Andy Klein <anrklein at gmail.com> wrote:
>>> >
>>> > I proposed this last spring and received a distinctly unenthusiastic
>>> response.  But I am re-proposing that we move to Saves + Holds as a
>>> category instead of just Saves.  That better reflects the reality of MLB
>>> pitching value today.  It also would end what is, IMHO, an inordinate focus
>>> on playing the "closer carousel" in our league.
>>> >
>>> > I would be up for doing this immediately -- and I say that as someone
>>> who will otherwise retain a closer.  But I suppose the typical way of doing
>>> this would be to make it effective next season.
>>> >
>>> > Last year, we agreed to implement the change if we voted to do so by
>>> mid-season.  But the proposal died for lack of interest.
>>> >
>>> > Thoughts?
>>> >
>>> > -Andy
>>> > _______________________________________________
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