[USML Announce] Pippins Nothing But A Dog - 2023 Version
Richard Robbins
RERobbins at itinker.net
Sun Mar 19 16:07:15 EDT 2023
Well written. Have a great season everyone.
On Sun, Mar 19, 2023 at 2:26 PM Mark Blocker <blockermark at gmail.com> wrote:
> Jeff: This is a fun read and a thorough and excellent analysis. I plead
> guilty to being a Rebuilder -- a deal that was sealed more firmly when
> Altuve went down. But note that the current estimate is that Altuve will
> be out 8-10 weeks, which means he is back around June 1 -- just in time for
> one lucky contender to get a huge infield upgrade. For those who are
> contending, you know where (and when) to find me. A few additional notes
> to add. Not about every team.
>
> 1. Buddha: This still seems like a contender to me. A "decent amount of
> everything" is a way to stay in the race early, and this team has plenty of
> chips to trade to move up. If they pull off some deals, this team is a
> threat for the title. Player that would most help this team: Ohtani.
>
> 2. Lubeasts: This team is strong in pitching and weak in the easiest
> categories to address by trade (HR/RBIs), so I would count this as a
> contender. Especially so if the purchases of Skubal and Huff are for
> purposes of trade. But both of those are long-time favorites of the owner,
> so color me skeptical that they will get moved. Without them, the other
> contenders will simply have more trade chips than this team. Player(s) that
> would most help this team: J. Ramirez and Stanton.
>
> 3. Klein Nine: A question: how many points will it take to win The
> Damon? Let's assume it takes 85 points (last year the winning total was
> 88, but probably will be lower this year with more teams contending). This
> team projects to have 36 points in hitting (low in average and SB). That
> means it needs 49 points from pitching and improvements to the offense.
> That seems like a tall order for the current roster. If Berrios returns to
> form, this team will have a better chance to hit that number. Player that
> would most help this team: T. McKenizie.
>
> 4. AYM: Maybe the best draft of anyone at the table (Doug, kudos to you
> for using the Rotolab software). Agree with Jeff's assessment on SBs, but
> the other category is Saves/Holds, not just saves, and this roster seems
> geared to secure lots of holds. And saves is another category where you can
> easily acquire help later on, either via trade or by FAAB. How many
> closers each year come from the ranks of the FAAB pool? Player that would
> most help this team: Altuve, Rizzo.
>
> 5. Nukes: Agreed that this team is the pre-season favorite. I am
> attributing that to his willingness to accept "suggestions" on which player
> to nominate during the draft. That was smart and classy, and now we will
> see if that is the secret sauce to winning a title. Player that would most
> help this team: Ohtani.
>
> 6. Overall: If the assessment is correct that there will be lots of
> contenders (perhaps as many as six), then that leaves a very limited pool
> of seller teams. This means trade prices may be higher than they were last
> year. Buyers beware!
>
> -- Mark B.
>
>
> On Sun, Mar 19, 2023 at 1:37 PM Jeffrey Winick <jwinick at hwhlegal.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Congratulations to everyone on an excellent draft and good luck on what
>> should be an outstandingly competitive season. With the exception of our
>> defending champion, Mr. B, this is anyone’s game. That being said, I have
>> consulted the spirit of Pippin and we have our annual assessment of the
>> state of play in the USML ready for your perusal.
>>
>>
>>
>> *REBUILDERS*
>>
>> *Block’s Bombers* – History teaches that a Bomber’s lineup filled with
>> potential trade pieces does not necessarily set the stage for multiple
>> trades and yet, there’s plenty for Mark to work with here. Stanton, Rizzo,
>> Ramirez, Kelenic, Kepler, Ohtani, McKenzie and maybe Neris and Leclerc all
>> mean that this team will look different and far better next year. But
>> that’s not the case for the 2023 campaign. The Bomber’s will not contend
>> in 2023.
>>
>>
>>
>> *IT COULD BE, IT MIGHT BE…..BUT PROBABLY NOT*
>>
>>
>>
>> *Calamari – *A strange team. Lots of wins, but lousy ERA and Ratio.
>> Lots of average, but not much in the way of counting stats. Pippin doesn’t
>> see this as a winning recipe. Glasnow, DeGrom and McCullers means that Jim
>> will be reading a lot of medical reports. Rodriguez, Gonzales and Perez
>> means that Jim will doing a lot of cringing when reading box scores. On
>> the hitting side, the lineup appears to be the epitome of Stars and
>> Scrubs. Guerrero, Devers, Henderson, Perez and Teoscar are great. Alfaro,
>> Schoop, Lopez, Badoo, Carpenter and Pollock….well, Pippin was taught that
>> if you don’t have anything nice to say….. At the end of the day, this is a
>> solid team that doesn’t appear to have the potential to pop. Pippin sees a
>> somewhat disappointing season ahead for the Calamari.
>>
>>
>>
>> *Brats – *Let’s start with offense. Or perhaps the better way to say it
>> might be….what offense? Or perhaps, what an offensive offense. Well….you
>> get the point. Lots of stolen bases at the expense of every other
>> category. Pippin thinks that perhaps John was signaling rebuilding with
>> the pickup of Naylor and Noel. But if not, even Kyle Tucker isn’t going to
>> be enough to turn this ship around. Per usual, Mr. Fruit has put together
>> a fine pitching staff, led by Gausman, Gilbert and Ryan. And Pippin
>> foresees this team ending up with the most saves with the shrewd choices of
>> Lopez, Munoz and Barlow. If the Brats are playing for 2023, Pippin thinks
>> the offense is going to hold them back. But if they’re rebuilding, Pippin
>> thinks the future looks bright.
>>
>>
>>
>> *LuBeasts – *The LuBeasts left Pippin a little confused. Are they in it
>> to win it or are they building for the future? Bregman and Castillo
>> purchases signaled that the Beasts were all in. Huff and Skubal indicated
>> a wait and see approach. So what is it Frank? Offense looks weak with
>> only stolen bases aggregating to a solid total and the decision to punt
>> batting average should have resulted in more power than it did. But
>> punting a category creates opportunity that Pippin expects to see exploited
>> soon enough. The pitching, on the other hand, looks strong. Bieber,
>> Kirby, Manoah and Castillo is the best 1-2-3-4 in the league. Looks like
>> there is too much ground to recover to take home the Damon, but this is
>> nonetheless a team that could make some noise.
>>
>>
>>
>> *Buddha – *Pippin wants to like this team more, but just can’t get
>> around to doing so. It has great balance, with a decent amount of
>> everything, but not a lot of anything other than saves. The lineup
>> epitomizes Pippin’s assessment. Lots of good players, but not many (if
>> any) great players. Plenty of solid production on the offense, but limited
>> potential for breakout performances. And the pitching is perhaps a bit too
>> dependent upon two Yankees starters (Cortes and Severino) that are as
>> likely to disappoint as they are to please. So while Pippin sees the
>> ceiling as low, it also sees the floor as high. This may well be a money
>> team, but probably not the one who will go home with the Damon.
>>
>>
>>
>> *CONTENDERS*
>>
>>
>>
>> *Klein Nine – *Along with the Daddies, this team has the best offense
>> coming out of the draft. And if Trout and Buxton actually stay healthy –
>> it will lap the field. Of course, neither has stayed healthy for a very
>> long time, but you just don’t know. It’s the pitching that is this team’s
>> Achilles’ heel. If only it had been Eric Hanson rather than Eric Swanson,
>> Pippin would be more bullish (or is that doggish) on Andy’s chances.
>> Rasmussen and Detmers are the real deal. Gray, Berrios and Anderson are
>> probably not. And Kremer, Abreu and Swanson are definitely not. So, while
>> the pitching isn’t a death sentence, neither is it a basis to anticipate
>> the Nine grabbing the Damon. It could happen, but there is one dog that
>> will be a little surprised if it does.
>>
>>
>>
>> *Berliners *– What the heck was this team thinking spending $107 on
>> pitching and not netting a sure thing in the bunch? Pippin has no answers
>> and even after having consulted with team management has no clue. With
>> luck, the pitching could aggregate into a mid level staff, but, this is far
>> too much money spent to not walk away with more confidence. The offense is
>> encouraging. Bader is already feeling better and could be back sooner than
>> expected. That has the potential to make him a bargain. Julio, Bo and
>> Wander bring star power and there’s plenty of production in all of the
>> hitting categories with the possible exception of power, but that can be
>> addressed in the trade market. If this isn’t the year, the Berliners
>> picked up lots of top beans, albeit ones that are a little young to do much
>> more than dream on at this point in time. A trade or two away from
>> relevance.
>>
>>
>>
>> *Angry Young Men* – Pippin noted that Uncle Doug pimped the Berliners
>> out of no less than 6 players during the draft and did exceedingly well in
>> the process. The team appears to have punted on Saves and Stolen Bases and
>> as a result is teeming with great totals in every other category. Javier,
>> Sale, Lopez and Civale form a formidable rotation and if any of Gallo,
>> Kiermeier and/or Kike Hernandez produce, they will all be bargains at their
>> salaries. The AYM don’t often engage in extensive trading, but if they can
>> pull off a few this year, the Damon could be theirs for the taking.
>>
>>
>>
>> *Hoosiers *– The Hoosiers spent their money on hitting and it shows. A
>> bit more speed would have improved this team’s prospects, but you can’t
>> quibble with any other aspect of the hitting. But….when you only spend $48
>> on pitching and $20 of that is on your closers, you’ve definitely rolled
>> the dice. Luis Garcia and Robbie Ray are nice anchors for this staff, but
>> after that it gets scary. Schmidt has thrown 70 innings over the last
>> three years and may not have a spot in the rotation once (if) Rodon
>> returns. Clevinger isn’t very good and is one more act of misbehavior away
>> from a suspension. Whitlock might offer nice production, but his
>> experience of nine career starts suggest he’s a crapshoot. This team will
>> hang in all year long and if it can trade for a pitcher or two could make
>> things interesting. But Pippin prefers the last team on the board….
>>
>>
>>
>> *Nukes* – The most daunting team coming out of the draft and heaven
>> knows, Rotolab likes this team. And yet, while Pippin assigns the title of
>> pre-season favorite to the Nukes, it is more than a bit wary. This team is
>> comprised of a little (or should we say much) too much risk for Pippin’s
>> comfort. Sure, Cole and Springs are a fantastic foundation to the pitching
>> staff, but what about the balance? Zach Eflin has averaged 80 innings a
>> year over the last three years and ended the season with sore knees. Tyler
>> Mahle is a sabermetric darling who never quite delivers and is now working
>> through shoulder soreness. Nick Pivetta is a pitcher that belongs on a
>> bench, not in a starting lineup. James Paxton has pitched 21! innings over
>> the last three years and he’s hurt again, and Michael Kopech is coming off
>> of knee surgery. Phew! Duran and Sewald should put up saves, but neither
>> is a lock with Jorge Lopez and Andre Munoz lurking. The offense on the
>> other hand is locked and loaded with only a little bit of injury risk from
>> Springer. With a little good fortune and perhaps a trade or two, this team
>> is the one to beat for the Damon.
>>
>>
>>
>> That is all!
>>
>>
>>
>> Pippin (with a little help from a friend)
>>
>>
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