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<P CLASS="2604c0c2-8f9b-4ceb-92b1-1a3ea0582dd3"><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Jeff: I actually went through this exercise last year, but never published the results. The question I struggled with is how to assess whether a pick/pan was correct. For example, if you label someone as a “pick,” and they have stats that are good but simply in line with prior years, is that pick “correct”? I took “pick” to mean the player significantly outperformed expected stats and “pan” to meant the opposite. Otherwise, where is the real expertise? Thoughts?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>In the end, I guess the beauty of being a pundit is that those terms are so loose you can declare yourself right most of the time, and maybe that, in and of itself, makes you a pundit!<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'> -- Mark B.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> announce-bounces@usml.net [mailto:announce-bounces@usml.net] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Jeffrey Winick<br><b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, February 19, 2013 6:36 PM<br><b>To:</b> announce@usml.net<br><b>Subject:</b> [USML Announce] Picks and Pans<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Mr. B has always threatened to go back and look at the prior year's Picks and Pans and offer an assessment about how "expert" the so-called expert really is. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Well, curiosity got the best of me and I've finally done it. Bottom line - I'm far better at assessing pitching than hitting. There were some real clunkers last year: (Crawford, Dunn, Granderson and Jeter) and (Darvish, Pineda and Santos), but there were lots of excellent ones as well: (Braun, Butler, Cabrera, Doumit) and (Dickey, Sale, Scherzer and Zimmerman).<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Of my 22 hitting Picks/Pan, I got 13 right (59%). Of my 19 pitching Picks/Pan, I got 14 right (74%).<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Here's the full list:<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black'>Bobby Abreu – PAN – CORRECT</span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Elvis Andrus – PICK - INCORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Erick Aybar – PICK – INCORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Brandon Belt – PAN – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Ryan Braun – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Jay Bruce – PICK - CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Billy Butler – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Miguel Cabrera – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Robinson Cano – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Carl Crawford – PICK – INCORRECT</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Ryan Doumit – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Adam Dunn – PAN – INCORRECT</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Jacoby Ellsbury – PAN – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>David Freese – PAN – INCORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Curtis Granderson – PAN – INCORRECT</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Eric Hosmer – PICK – INCORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Derek Jeter – PAN – INCORRECT</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Jesus Montero – PICK – INCORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Justin Morneau – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Martin Prado – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Jayson Werth – PAN – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Matt Wieters – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Heath Bell – PAN – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Yu Darvish – PAN – INCORRECT</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>RA Dickey – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Cole Hamels – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Tommy Hanson – PAN – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Kenley Jansen – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Ubaldo Jimenez – PAN – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Mat Latos – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Matt Moore – PICK - CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Bud Norris – PICK – INCORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Michael Pineda – PICK – INCORRECT</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>David Robertson – PICK – INCORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Chris Sale – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Sergio Santos – PICK – INCORRECT</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Max Scherzer – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Huston Street – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Justin Verlander – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Jordan Walden – PAN – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Jordan Zimmerman – PICK - CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Jeff<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></div></P>
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