<font color='black' size='2' face='arial'>
<div>Also, the sample size is pretty small, and pitching is notoriously unpredictable. I think we can concede that there was a year when Jeff was arguably right more often that he was wrong. That's not as good as Tom Skilling, but what the heck.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Mark<br>
<br>
<br>
</div>
<div style="FONT-FAMILY: arial,helvetica; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">-----Original Message-----<br>
From: Jeffrey Winick <jhwinick@aol.com><br>
To: announce <announce@usml.net><br>
Sent: Tue, Feb 19, 2013 7:21 pm<br>
Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans<br>
<br>
<div id=AOLMsgPart_2_7997b5a8-9cb3-46ee-9447-870a8130cd73><FONT color=black size=2 face=arial>A fair point. But I think if you read the commentary, it makes it easier to determine whether the Pick/Pan was correct. For example, Verlander and Cano were picks that were identified as safe bets to put up similar if not better numbers than the prior year. Those are correct assessments since they did exactly what I predicted they'd do. Most of time I identified not only that they were a pick or a pan, but I predicted what their performance would be. My scorecard is based on a comparison of the descriptions as much as the tagline of Pick/Pan.
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Jeff<br>
<br>
<br>
<div style="FONT-FAMILY: arial,helvetica; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">-----Original Message-----<br>
From: Blocker, Mark B. <<A href="mailto:mblocker@Sidley.com">mblocker@Sidley.com</A>><br>
To: USML Announcements <<A href="mailto:announce@usml.net">announce@usml.net</A>><br>
Sent: Tue, Feb 19, 2013 6:42 pm<br>
Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans<br>
<br>
<div id=AOLMsgPart_2_d1be3824-29d0-46c2-b374-a227fc5f4337>
<div class=2604c0c2-8f9b-4ceb-92b1-1a3ea0582dd3></div>
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<div class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 11pt">Jeff: I actually went through this exercise last year, but never published the results. The question I struggled with is how to assess whether a pick/pan was correct. For example, if you label someone as a “pick,” and they have stats that are good but simply in line with prior years, is that pick “correct”? I took “pick” to mean the player significantly outperformed expected stats and “pan” to meant the opposite. Otherwise, where is the real expertise? Thoughts?</SPAN></div>
<div class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 11pt"> </SPAN></div>
<div class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 11pt">In the end, I guess the beauty of being a pundit is that those terms are so loose you can declare yourself right most of the time, and maybe that, in and of itself, makes you a pundit!</SPAN></div>
<div class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 11pt"> </SPAN></div>
<div class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 11pt"> -- Mark B.</SPAN></div>
<div class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 11pt"> </SPAN></div>
<div style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #b5c4df 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 3pt">
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">From:</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> <A href="mailto:announce-bounces@usml.net">announce-bounces@usml.net</A> [<A href="mailto:announce-bounces@usml.net?">mailto:announce-bounces@usml.net</A>] <B>On Behalf Of </B>Jeffrey Winick<br>
<B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, February 19, 2013 6:36 PM<br>
<B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:announce@usml.net">announce@usml.net</A><br>
<B>Subject:</B> [USML Announce] Picks and Pans</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal> </div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Mr. B has always threatened to go back and look at the prior year's Picks and Pans and offer an assessment about how "expert" the so-called expert really is. </SPAN></div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> </SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Well, curiosity got the best of me and I've finally done it. Bottom line - I'm far better at assessing pitching than hitting. There were some real clunkers last year: (Crawford, Dunn, Granderson and Jeter) and (Darvish, Pineda and Santos), but there were lots of excellent ones as well: (Braun, Butler, Cabrera, Doumit) and (Dickey, Sale, Scherzer and Zimmerman).</SPAN></div>
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<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> </SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Of my 22 hitting Picks/Pan, I got 13 right (59%). Of my 19 pitching Picks/Pan, I got 14 right (74%).</SPAN></div>
</div>
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<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> </SPAN></div>
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<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Here's the full list:</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> </SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Bobby Abreu – PAN – CORRECT</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"></SPAN></div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Elvis Andrus – PICK - INCORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Erick Aybar – PICK – INCORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Brandon Belt – PAN – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Ryan Braun – PICK – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Jay Bruce – PICK - CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Billy Butler – PICK – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Miguel Cabrera – PICK – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Robinson Cano – PICK – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Carl Crawford – PICK – INCORRECT</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"></SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Ryan Doumit – PICK – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Adam Dunn – PAN – INCORRECT</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"></SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Jacoby Ellsbury – PAN – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">David Freese – PAN – INCORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Curtis Granderson – PAN – INCORRECT</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"></SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Eric Hosmer – PICK – INCORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Derek Jeter – PAN – INCORRECT</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"></SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Jesus Montero – PICK – INCORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Justin Morneau – PICK – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Martin Prado – PICK – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Jayson Werth – PAN – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Matt Wieters – PICK – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> </SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Heath Bell – PAN – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Yu Darvish – PAN – INCORRECT</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"></SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">RA Dickey – PICK – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Cole Hamels – PICK – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Tommy Hanson – PAN – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Kenley Jansen – PICK – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Ubaldo Jimenez – PAN – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Mat Latos – PICK – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Matt Moore – PICK - CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Bud Norris – PICK – INCORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Michael Pineda – PICK – INCORRECT</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"></SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">David Robertson – PICK – INCORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Chris Sale – PICK – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Sergio Santos – PICK – INCORRECT</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"></SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Max Scherzer – PICK – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Huston Street – PICK – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Justin Verlander – PICK – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Jordan Walden – PAN – CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Jordan Zimmerman – PICK - CORRECT</SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> </SPAN></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: ; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Jeff</SPAN></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div></div>
<div class=2604c0c2-8f9b-4ceb-92b1-1a3ea0582dd3> </div>
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