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sounds like Jeff needs to revert to the security analyst methodology: strong buy/buy/sell/reduce/neutral/overweight/underweight/peddle to Brad for a first-rate position player.<br> <BR><div><div id="SkyDrivePlaceholder"></div><hr id="stopSpelling">To: announce@usml.net<br>From: jhwinick@aol.com<br>Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2013 20:20:22 -0500<br>Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans<br><br><font color="black" size="2" face="arial">A fair point. But I think if you read the commentary, it makes it easier to determine whether the Pick/Pan was correct. For example, Verlander and Cano were picks that were identified as safe bets to put up similar if not better numbers than the prior year. Those are correct assessments since they did exactly what I predicted they'd do. Most of time I identified not only that they were a pick or a pan, but I predicted what their performance would be. My scorecard is based on a comparison of the descriptions as much as the tagline of Pick/Pan.
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<div>Jeff<br>
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<div style="color: black; font-family: arial,helvetica; font-size: 10pt;">-----Original Message-----<br>
From: Blocker, Mark B. <mblocker@Sidley.com><br>
To: USML Announcements <announce@usml.net><br>
Sent: Tue, Feb 19, 2013 6:42 pm<br>
Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans<br>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 11pt;">Jeff: I actually went through this exercise last year, but never published the results. The question I struggled with is how to assess whether a pick/pan was correct. For example, if you label someone as a pick, and they have stats that are good but simply in line with prior years, is that pick correct? I took pick to mean the player significantly outperformed expected stats and pan to meant the opposite. Otherwise, where is the real expertise? Thoughts?</span></div>
<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></div>
<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 11pt;">In the end, I guess the beauty of being a pundit is that those terms are so loose you can declare yourself right most of the time, and maybe that, in and of itself, makes you a pundit!</span></div>
<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></div>
<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 11pt;"> -- Mark B.</span></div>
<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">From:</span></b><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;"> <a href="mailto:announce-bounces@usml.net">announce-bounces@usml.net</a> [<a href="mailto:announce-bounces@usml.net?">mailto:announce-bounces@usml.net</a>] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Jeffrey Winick<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, February 19, 2013 6:36 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:announce@usml.net">announce@usml.net</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> [USML Announce] Picks and Pans</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Mr. B has always threatened to go back and look at the prior year's Picks and Pans and offer an assessment about how "expert" the so-called expert really is. </span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;"> </span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Well, curiosity got the best of me and I've finally done it. Bottom line - I'm far better at assessing pitching than hitting. There were some real clunkers last year: (Crawford, Dunn, Granderson and Jeter) and (Darvish, Pineda and Santos), but there were lots of excellent ones as well: (Braun, Butler, Cabrera, Doumit) and (Dickey, Sale, Scherzer and Zimmerman).</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Of my 22 hitting Picks/Pan, I got 13 right (59%). Of my 19 pitching Picks/Pan, I got 14 right (74%).</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;"> </span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Here's the full list:</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Bobby Abreu PAN CORRECT</span><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;"></span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Elvis Andrus PICK - INCORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Erick Aybar PICK INCORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Brandon Belt PAN CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Ryan Braun PICK CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Jay Bruce PICK - CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Billy Butler PICK CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Miguel Cabrera PICK CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Robinson Cano PICK CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Carl Crawford PICK INCORRECT</span></b><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;"></span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Ryan Doumit PICK CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Adam Dunn PAN INCORRECT</span></b><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;"></span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Jacoby Ellsbury PAN CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">David Freese PAN INCORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Curtis Granderson PAN INCORRECT</span></b><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;"></span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Eric Hosmer PICK INCORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Derek Jeter PAN INCORRECT</span></b><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;"></span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Jesus Montero PICK INCORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Justin Morneau PICK CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Martin Prado PICK CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Jayson Werth PAN CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Matt Wieters PICK CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;"> </span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Heath Bell PAN CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Yu Darvish PAN INCORRECT</span></b><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;"></span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">RA Dickey PICK CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Cole Hamels PICK CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Tommy Hanson PAN CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Kenley Jansen PICK CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Ubaldo Jimenez PAN CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Mat Latos PICK CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Matt Moore PICK - CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Bud Norris PICK INCORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Michael Pineda PICK INCORRECT</span></b><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;"></span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">David Robertson PICK INCORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Chris Sale PICK CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Sergio Santos PICK INCORRECT</span></b><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;"></span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Max Scherzer PICK CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Huston Street PICK CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Justin Verlander PICK CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Jordan Walden PAN CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Jordan Zimmerman PICK - CORRECT</span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;"> </span></div>
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<div class="ecxMsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ; font-size: 10pt;">Jeff</span></div>
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<div class="ecx2604c0c2-8f9b-4ceb-92b1-1a3ea0582dd3"> </div>
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