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<div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>“peddle to Brad for a first-rate position player”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Finally some acknowledgment of the Myers trade. Or is this a reference to the Trout trade? Or the Montero trade? ;-)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>What time are we getting started on the 17<sup>th</sup>? And who’s bringing the donuts this year?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Jeff<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> announce-bounces@usml.net [mailto:announce-bounces@usml.net] <b>On Behalf Of </b>JOHN FRUIT<br><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, February 20, 2013 4:50 AM<br><b>To:</b> announce@usml.net<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>sounds like Jeff needs to revert to the security analyst methodology: strong buy/buy/sell/reduce/neutral/overweight/underweight/peddle to Brad for a first-rate position player.<br> <o:p></o:p></span></p><div><div class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'><hr size=2 width="100%" align=center id=stopSpelling></span></div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>To: <a href="mailto:announce@usml.net">announce@usml.net</a><br>From: <a href="mailto:jhwinick@aol.com">jhwinick@aol.com</a><br>Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2013 20:20:22 -0500<br>Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans<br><br></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>A fair point. But I think if you read the commentary, it makes it easier to determine whether the Pick/Pan was correct. For example, Verlander and Cano were picks that were identified as safe bets to put up similar if not better numbers than the prior year. Those are correct assessments since they did exactly what I predicted they'd do. Most of time I identified not only that they were a pick or a pan, but I predicted what their performance would be. My scorecard is based on a comparison of the descriptions as much as the tagline of Pick/Pan. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Jeff<br><br><o:p></o:p></span></p><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>-----Original Message-----<br>From: Blocker, Mark B. <mblocker@Sidley.com><br>To: USML Announcements <announce@usml.net><br>Sent: Tue, Feb 19, 2013 6:42 pm<br>Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Picks and Pans<o:p></o:p></span></p><div id="ecxAOLMsgPart_2_d1be3824-29d0-46c2-b374-a227fc5f4337"><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Jeff: I actually went through this exercise last year, but never published the results. The question I struggled with is how to assess whether a pick/pan was correct. For example, if you label someone as a “pick,” and they have stats that are good but simply in line with prior years, is that pick “correct”? I took “pick” to mean the player significantly outperformed expected stats and “pan” to meant the opposite. Otherwise, where is the real expertise? Thoughts?</span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>In the end, I guess the beauty of being a pundit is that those terms are so loose you can declare yourself right most of the time, and maybe that, in and of itself, makes you a pundit!</span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'> -- Mark B.</span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in;border-color:currentColor currentColor'><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'> <a href="mailto:announce-bounces@usml.net">announce-bounces@usml.net</a> [<a href="mailto:announce-bounces@usml.net?">mailto:announce-bounces@usml.net</a>] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Jeffrey Winick<br><b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, February 19, 2013 6:36 PM<br><b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:announce@usml.net">announce@usml.net</a><br><b>Subject:</b> [USML Announce] Picks and Pans<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Mr. B has always threatened to go back and look at the prior year's Picks and Pans and offer an assessment about how "expert" the so-called expert really is. <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Well, curiosity got the best of me and I've finally done it. Bottom line - I'm far better at assessing pitching than hitting. There were some real clunkers last year: (Crawford, Dunn, Granderson and Jeter) and (Darvish, Pineda and Santos), but there were lots of excellent ones as well: (Braun, Butler, Cabrera, Doumit) and (Dickey, Sale, Scherzer and Zimmerman).<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Of my 22 hitting Picks/Pan, I got 13 right (59%). Of my 19 pitching Picks/Pan, I got 14 right (74%).<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Here's the full list:<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Bobby Abreu – PAN – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Elvis Andrus – PICK - INCORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Erick Aybar – PICK – INCORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Brandon Belt – PAN – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Ryan Braun – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Jay Bruce – PICK - CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Billy Butler – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Miguel Cabrera – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Robinson Cano – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Carl Crawford – PICK – INCORRECT</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Ryan Doumit – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Adam Dunn – PAN – INCORRECT</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Jacoby Ellsbury – PAN – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>David Freese – PAN – INCORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Curtis Granderson – PAN – INCORRECT</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Eric Hosmer – PICK – INCORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Derek Jeter – PAN – INCORRECT</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Jesus Montero – PICK – INCORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Justin Morneau – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Martin Prado – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Jayson Werth – PAN – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Matt Wieters – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Heath Bell – PAN – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Yu Darvish – PAN – INCORRECT</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>RA Dickey – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Cole Hamels – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Tommy Hanson – PAN – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Kenley Jansen – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Ubaldo Jimenez – PAN – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Mat Latos – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Matt Moore – PICK - CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Bud Norris – PICK – INCORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Michael Pineda – PICK – INCORRECT</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>David Robertson – PICK – INCORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Chris Sale – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Sergio Santos – PICK – INCORRECT</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Max Scherzer – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Huston Street – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Justin Verlander – PICK – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Jordan Walden – PAN – CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Jordan Zimmerman – PICK - CORRECT<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Jeff<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></div></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br>IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: To comply with certain U.S. Treasury regulations, we inform you<br>that, unless expressly stated otherwise, any U.S. federal tax advice contained in this<br>communication, including attachments, was not intended or written to be used, and cannot be<br>used, by any taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding any penalties that may be imposed on such <br>taxpayer by the Internal Revenue Service. In addition, if any such tax advice is used or referred<br>to by other parties in promoting, marketing or recommending any partnership or other entity,<br>investment plan or arrangement, then (i) the advice should be construed as written in connection<br>with the promotion or marketing by others of the transaction(s) or matter(s) addressed in this<br>communication and (ii) the taxpayer should seek advice based on the taxpayer's particular<br>circumstances from an independent tax advisor.<br>****************************************************************************************************<br>This e-mail is sent by a law firm and may contain information that is privileged or confidential.<br>If you are not the intended recipient, please delete the e-mail and any attachments and notify us<br>immediately.<br><br>****************************************************************************************************<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div id="ecxAOLMsgPart_3_d1be3824-29d0-46c2-b374-a227fc5f4337"><pre style='background:white'><tt><span style='color:black'>_______________________________________________<o:p></o:p></span></tt></pre><pre style='background:white'><tt><span style='color:black'>announce mailing list<o:p></o:p></span></tt></pre><pre style='background:white'><tt><span style='color:black'><a href="mailto:announce@usml.net">announce@usml.net</a><o:p></o:p></span></tt></pre><pre style='background:white'><tt><span style='color:black'><a href="http://lists.usml.net/mailman/listinfo/announce" target="_blank">http://lists.usml.net/mailman/listinfo/announce</a><o:p></o:p></span></tt></pre></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'><br>_______________________________________________ announce mailing list <a href="mailto:announce@usml.net">announce@usml.net</a> <a href="http://lists.usml.net/mailman/listinfo/announce">http://lists.usml.net/mailman/listinfo/announce</a><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></div>
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