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    That's interesting stuff, Frank.  (But, be careful, or you'll start
    sounding like Winick ...)<br>
    <br>
    Seriously, though, there's a lot of season left.  So isn't this a
    suggestion that the Jays should have a good second half?  And, if
    so, let's hope it's behind the bat of Jose Bautista!!<br>
    <br>
    -Andy<br>
    <br>
    <div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 7/21/2015 6:31 PM, Frank Luby wrote:<br>
    </div>
    <blockquote
      cite="mid:1311068073.14901.1437517886440.JavaMail.yahoo@mail.yahoo.com"
      type="cite">
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        <div id="yui_3_16_0_1_1437517457732_3070"><span>Hi Mark,</span></div>
        <div id="yui_3_16_0_1_1437517457732_2728"><span><br>
          </span></div>
        <div id="yui_3_16_0_1_1437517457732_2730" dir="ltr"><span
            id="yui_3_16_0_1_1437517457732_2729">If you use the adjusted
            Bill James Pythagorean for,mula (used by
            baseball-reference.com), the Cardinals should have a winning
            percentage of .640 and have 59 wins right now. In reality
            that have 58 wins, so they are performing in line with their
            run differential and their very strong pitching. (Not all
            run differentials are the same; the Jays' is qualitatively
            much worse because they give too many runs)</span></div>
        <div id="yui_3_16_0_1_1437517457732_2730" dir="ltr"><span><br>
          </span></div>
        <div id="yui_3_16_0_1_1437517457732_2730" dir="ltr"><span
            id="yui_3_16_0_1_1437517457732_4441">The Blue Jays should be
            playing .589 ball and should have 55 wins vs. their current
            47. This gap is often explained by bad luck (or a horrible
            bullpen), which manifests itself in a bad record in close
            games. Through the end of May, the Jays were 5-15 in games
            decided by one or two runs. </span></div>
        <div id="yui_3_16_0_1_1437517457732_2730" dir="ltr"><span><br>
          </span></div>
        <div id="yui_3_16_0_1_1437517457732_2730" dir="ltr"><span>That
            may explain the discrepancy. </span></div>
        <div id="yui_3_16_0_1_1437517457732_2730" dir="ltr"><span><br>
          </span></div>
        <div id="yui_3_16_0_1_1437517457732_2730" dir="ltr">Thoughts?</div>
        <div id="yui_3_16_0_1_1437517457732_2730" dir="ltr"><br>
        </div>
        <div id="yui_3_16_0_1_1437517457732_2730" dir="ltr">Best wishes
          from Area 51 (as in 51-111 in honor of the 2013 Astros and the
          2015 Lubeasts)</div>
        <div id="yui_3_16_0_1_1437517457732_2730" dir="ltr"><br>
        </div>
        <div id="yui_3_16_0_1_1437517457732_2730" dir="ltr">- Frank</div>
        <div id="yui_3_16_0_1_1437517457732_2730" dir="ltr"><span><br>
          </span></div>
        <div id="yui_3_16_0_1_1437517457732_2730" dir="ltr"><a
            moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2015/5/28/8676745/why-are-the-jays-terrible-in-close-games-this-century"
            id="yui_3_16_0_1_1437517457732_4617"
            style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Why are the
            Jays terrible in close games this century?</a><br>
        </div>
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href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2015/5/28/8676745/why-are-the-jays-terrible-in-close-games-this-century"
                        class="link-enhancr-card-urlWrapper
                        link-enhancr-element" style="text-decoration:
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                        line-height: 100%; font-size: 18px; display:
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                          link-enhancr-card-title" style="margin: 0;
                          font-weight: normal;margin-bottom: 3px;
                          font-size: 18px; line-height: 21px;
                          max-height: 43px; color: #000000; overflow:
                          hidden !important; display: inline-block;">Why
                          are the Jays terrible in close games this
                          century?</span></a>
                      <div style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 20px;
                        color: #999999; max-height: 81px; font-family:
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                        class="link-enhancr-card-description
                        link-enhancr-element"
                        id="yui_3_16_0_1_1437517457732_4853">It should
                        come as no surprise to anyone who's paid much
                        attention to the Jays this year that they've got
                        an awful record in close games. With yesterday's
                        10th innin...</div>
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              <div dir="ltr"> <font size="2" face="Arial"> On Tuesday,
                  July 21, 2015 6:10 PM, Mark Blocker
                  <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:blockermark@gmail.com"><blockermark@gmail.com></a> wrote:<br>
                </font> </div>
              <br>
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              <div class="y_msg_container">
                <div id="yiv1103241037">
                  <div dir="ltr">
                    <div class="yiv1103241037gmail_default"
                      style="font-size:large;">Jeff/others:</div>
                    <div class="yiv1103241037gmail_default"
                      style="font-size:large;"><br>
                    </div>
                    <div class="yiv1103241037gmail_default"
                      style="font-size:large;">  Just curious about the
                      following statistic.  The Toronto Blue Jays have
                      outscored their opponents by 89 runs (and have
                      scored 80 more runs than any other team in
                      baseball), yet have a .500 record.  For
                      comparison, the St. Louis Cardinals are plus 100,
                      but they are 24 games over .500.  The Toronto stat
                      has to be some sort of record-setting anomaly. 
                      How could that be?</div>
                    <div class="yiv1103241037gmail_default"
                      style="font-size:large;"><br>
                    </div>
                    <div class="yiv1103241037gmail_default"
                      style="font-size:large;">  -- Mark</div>
                  </div>
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