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<div>Better to address the bulk of situations, rather than find an extreme example to justify an odd rule. In general, the later the inning, the more valuable the inning, and the ninth is the most valuable inning. Also, again in general, major league managers run their best relievers out there later in the game. So, in general a save (which always represents a win for the team) is more valuable than a hold (which sometimes represents a win for the team). (As Jose Alvarado's owner, I have no doubt that you see the beauty of the hold, but he's not the third most reliable relief pitcher in the AL. He's just not.)</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And, as separately noted, the arithmetic makes more sense w/ a 2:1 ratio, because that reflects that actual levels of scarcity, with holds being about twice as common as saves.</div>
<div><br>
Mark</div>
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<div style="color: black; font-family: arial,helvetica; font-size: 10pt;">-----Original Message-----<br>
From: Blocker, Mark B. <mblocker@sidley.com><br>
To: springkerb <springkerb@aol.com>; USML Announcements <announce@usml.net><br>
Sent: Tue, Feb 12, 2019 11:09 am<br>
Subject: RE: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux<br>
<br>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31, 73, 125); font-size: 14pt;">Bases loaded, top of the 8th, no outs, home team up by one run. Hader comes in and gets five straight Ks. Knebel induces a long fly out to the deepest part of the park for the save. Equally
important? Beauty in the eye of the beholder….</span></div>
<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31, 73, 125); font-size: 14pt;"> </span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal"><b><span style="color: rgb(31, 73, 125); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">MARK B. BLOCKER</span></b><span style="color: rgb(31, 73, 125); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><br>
<br>
<br>
<b>SIDLEY AUSTIN LLP<br>
</b>+1 312 853 6097<br>
<a title="Click to send email to Blocker, Mark B." href="mailto:mblocker@sidley.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:mblocker@sidley.com">mblocker@sidley.com</a></span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><b><span style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">From:</span></b><span style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> springkerb <springkerb@aol.com>
<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, February 12, 2019 11:01 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> USML Announcements <announce@usml.net><br>
<b>Cc:</b> Blocker, Mark B. <mblocker@sidley.com><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux</span></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"> </div>
<div>
<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;">But they're not equally important. When a team gets a save, that team always wins. When a team gets a hold, they may or may not win. They're both important, but not equally so.</div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="color: rgb(87, 87, 87); font-size: 10pt;">Sent via the Samsung Galaxy S®6 active, an AT&T 4G LTE smartphone</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="color: black;">-------- Original message --------</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="color: black;">From: "Blocker, Mark B. via Announce" <<a href="mailto:announce@usml.net" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:announce@usml.net">announce@usml.net</a>>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="color: black;">Date: 2/12/19 9:49 AM (GMT-06:00)
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="color: black;">To: USML Announcements <<a href="mailto:announce@usml.net" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:announce@usml.net">announce@usml.net</a>>
</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="color: black;">Cc: "Blocker, Mark B." <<a href="mailto:mblocker@sidley.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:mblocker@sidley.com">mblocker@sidley.com</a>>
</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="color: black;">Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="color: rgb(31, 73, 125); font-size: 14pt;">Want to give this more thought, but I think I agree with John’s point that 2x saves puts too much emphasis on saves and defeats our goal of treating holds as equally
important.</span></div>
<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="color: rgb(31, 73, 125); font-size: 14pt;"> </span></div>
<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="color: rgb(31, 73, 125); font-size: 14pt;">Also, here are the options Onroto currently allows. I believe the math on option two works out the same as what some have proposed on a relative basis:</span></div>
<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="color: rgb(31, 73, 125); font-size: 14pt;"> </span></div>
<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="color: rgb(31, 73, 125); font-size: 14pt;">HOSV (Holds + Saves)</span></div>
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</span></div>
<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="color: rgb(31, 73, 125); font-size: 14pt;">SAVES2 (Saves + Holds / 2)</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;">
<b><span style="color: rgb(31, 73, 125); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">MARK B. BLOCKER</span></b><span style="color: rgb(31, 73, 125); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><br>
<br>
<br>
<b>SIDLEY AUSTIN LLP<br>
</b>+1 312 853 6097<br>
<a title="Click to send email to Blocker, Mark B." href="mailto:mblocker@sidley.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:mblocker@sidley.com">mblocker@sidley.com</a></span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><b><span style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">From:</span></b><span style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> Announce <<a href="mailto:announce-bounces@usml.net" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:announce-bounces@usml.net">announce-bounces@usml.net</a>>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Bill Strotman via Announce<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, February 12, 2019 9:37 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> USML Announcements <<a href="mailto:announce@usml.net" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:announce@usml.net">announce@usml.net</a>><br>
<b>Cc:</b> Bill Strotman <<a href="mailto:bbuddhas@aol.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:bbuddhas@aol.com">bbuddhas@aol.com</a>><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux</span></div>
</div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"> </div>
<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;">Who cares what’s most realistic. It’s fantasy sports </div>
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We give same weighting to SB as dingers. That’s wrong. </div>
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<br>
On Feb 12, 2019, at 9:14 AM, Frank Luby via Announce <<a href="mailto:announce@usml.net" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:announce@usml.net">announce@usml.net</a>> wrote:</div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Good points, Mark.</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">This version re-sorts the right-hand data to make Mark's points clear.</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: rgb(38, 40, 42); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">On Tuesday, February 12, 2019, 8:54:09 AM CST, springkerb <<a href="mailto:springkerb@aol.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:springkerb@aol.com">springkerb@aol.com</a>> wrote:
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: rgb(38, 40, 42); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">To me, the 2x saves version does a better job of identifying pitchers who can reliably hold a lead--which I think is what we're trying
to measure here. For example, the version that values saves and holds equally says that Jose Alvarado is third in the league. He's a good reliever, but I don't think he was more reliablelast year than Trienen or Chapman. Similarly, the equally weighted
version says the Chaz Roe (Chaz Roe?) was the sixth most reliable holder of leads in the AL. That's nuts.</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: rgb(38, 40, 42); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">In general, major league managers use their best relievers later in the games, and that makes sense, since holding a lead gets more
valuable later in the game. A clean ninth inning improves the team's likelihood of winning more when there are fewer innings left to play. So, at least to my eye, the 2x approach does a better job of rewarding better relievers. </span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: rgb(38, 40, 42); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Mark</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: rgb(87, 87, 87); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 8.5pt;">Sent via the Samsung Galaxy S®6 active, an AT&T 4G LTE smartphone</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-------- Original message --------</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">From: JOHN FRUIT <<a href="mailto:jtfruit@msn.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:jtfruit@msn.com">jtfruit@msn.com</a>>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Date: 2/12/19 5:19 AM (GMT-06:00)
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">To: USML Announcements <<a href="mailto:announce@usml.net" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:announce@usml.net">announce@usml.net</a>>, Frank Luby <<a href="mailto:zachfehsvater@yahoo.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:zachfehsvater@yahoo.com">zachfehsvater@yahoo.com</a>>,
Andy Klein <<a href="mailto:anrklein@gmail.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:anrklein@gmail.com">anrklein@gmail.com</a>> </span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Cc: springkerb <<a href="mailto:springkerb@aol.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:springkerb@aol.com">springkerb@aol.com</a>>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: rgb(38, 40, 42); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">What's apparent is that the 2x saves method seems to put even more statistical emphasis on the saves category, kinda defeating the purpose.</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: rgb(87, 87, 87); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 8.5pt;">Sent from my Verizon, Samsung Galaxy smartphone</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: rgb(38, 40, 42); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-------- Original message --------</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: rgb(38, 40, 42); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">From: springkerb via Announce <<a href="mailto:announce@usml.net" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:announce@usml.net">announce@usml.net</a>>
</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: rgb(38, 40, 42); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Date: 2/11/19 10:15 PM (GMT-06:00)
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: rgb(38, 40, 42); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">To: Frank Luby <<a href="mailto:zachfehsvater@yahoo.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:zachfehsvater@yahoo.com">zachfehsvater@yahoo.com</a>>, Andy Klein <<a href="mailto:anrklein@gmail.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:anrklein@gmail.com">anrklein@gmail.com</a>>,
USML Announcements <<a href="mailto:announce@usml.net" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:announce@usml.net">announce@usml.net</a>> </span>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: rgb(38, 40, 42); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Cc: springkerb <<a href="mailto:springkerb@aol.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:springkerb@aol.com">springkerb@aol.com</a>>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: rgb(38, 40, 42); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: rgb(38, 40, 42); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Cool. It's an interesting comparison.</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: rgb(87, 87, 87); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 8.5pt;">Sent via the Samsung Galaxy S®6 active, an AT&T 4G LTE smartphone</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-------- Original message --------</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">From: Frank Luby <<a href="mailto:zachfehsvater@yahoo.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:zachfehsvater@yahoo.com">zachfehsvater@yahoo.com</a>>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Date: 2/11/19 10:02 PM (GMT-06:00)
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">To: Andy Klein <<a href="mailto:anrklein@gmail.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:anrklein@gmail.com">anrklein@gmail.com</a>>, USML Announcements <<a href="mailto:announce@usml.net" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:announce@usml.net">announce@usml.net</a>>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Cc: springkerb <<a href="mailto:springkerb@aol.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:springkerb@aol.com">springkerb@aol.com</a>>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Subject: Re: [USML Announce] Saves + Holds Redux
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: rgb(38, 40, 42); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">To throw some data into this discussion, here are the top 50 relievers in the AL last season ranked by the SV+HLD method and the 2xSV+HLD,
in a side by side comparison ...</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: rgb(38, 40, 42); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">On Monday, February 11, 2019, 9:44:36 PM CST, springkerb via Announce <<a href="mailto:announce@usml.net" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ymailto="mailto:announce@usml.net">announce@usml.net</a>> wrote:
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: rgb(38, 40, 42); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">I'd like you to reconsider the ratio. There are about twice as many holds as saves. Weighting them equally would actually make the
7th and 8th inning guys more valuable than closers, which just doesn't seem right.</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: rgb(38, 40, 42); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Mark</span></div>
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<div class="yiv5157233224MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1in;"><span style="color: rgb(87, 87, 87); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 8.5pt;">Sent via the Samsung Galaxy S®6 active, an AT&T 4G LTE smartphone</span></div>
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