[USML Announce] Pippins Nothing But A Dog - 2023 Version

Sun Mar 19 20:18:40 EDT 2023

:-)

I started a new job 8 months ago, am a year away from completing a Master's
Degree at UC Berkeley (and so far I'm 2 for 2 when it comes to the Big
Game, compared to my sons who are a combined 1 for 9), and in May, I will
become a grandfather!

On Sun, Mar 19, 2023 at 6:42 PM springkerb--- via Announce <
announce at usml.net> wrote:

> We're ready to expand to 11 teams whenever you get bored with whatever you
> do with your USML time!
>
> Mark
>
> On Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 03:08:16 PM CDT, Richard Robbins <
> rerobbins at itinker.net> wrote:
>
>
> Well written.  Have a great season everyone.
>
> On Sun, Mar 19, 2023 at 2:26 PM Mark Blocker <blockermark at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> Jeff:  This is a fun read and a thorough and excellent analysis.  I plead
> guilty to being a Rebuilder -- a deal that was sealed more firmly when
> Altuve went down.  But note that the current estimate is that Altuve will
> be out 8-10 weeks, which means he is back around June 1 -- just in time for
> one lucky contender to get a huge infield upgrade. For those who are
> contending, you know where (and when) to find me.  A few additional notes
> to add.  Not about every team.
>
> 1.  Buddha:  This still seems like a contender to me. A "decent amount of
> everything" is a way to stay in the race early, and this team has plenty of
> chips to trade to move up.  If they pull off some deals, this team is a
> threat for the title.  Player that would most help this team:  Ohtani.
>
> 2.  Lubeasts:  This team is strong in pitching and weak in the easiest
> categories to address by trade (HR/RBIs), so I would count this as a
> contender. Especially so if the purchases of Skubal and Huff are for
> purposes of trade. But both of those are long-time favorites of the owner,
> so color me skeptical that they will get moved. Without them, the other
> contenders will simply have more trade chips than this team. Player(s) that
> would most help this team: J. Ramirez and Stanton.
>
> 3.  Klein Nine:  A question: how many points will it take to win The
> Damon?  Let's assume it takes 85 points (last year the winning total was
> 88, but probably will be lower this year with more teams contending). This
> team projects to have 36 points in hitting (low in average and SB). That
> means it needs 49 points from pitching and improvements to the offense.
> That seems like a tall order for the current roster. If Berrios returns to
> form, this team will have a better chance to hit that number. Player that
> would most help this team: T. McKenizie.
>
> 4.  AYM:  Maybe the best draft of anyone at the table (Doug, kudos to you
> for using the Rotolab software).  Agree with Jeff's assessment on SBs, but
> the other category is Saves/Holds, not just saves, and this roster seems
> geared to secure lots of holds. And saves is another category where you can
> easily acquire help later on, either via trade or by FAAB.  How many
> closers each year come from the ranks of the FAAB pool? Player that would
> most help this team: Altuve, Rizzo.
>
> 5.  Nukes:  Agreed that this team is the pre-season favorite. I am
> attributing that to his willingness to accept "suggestions" on which player
> to nominate during the draft.  That was smart and classy, and now we will
> see if that is the secret sauce to winning a title. Player that would most
> help this team:  Ohtani.
>
> 6.  Overall:  If the assessment is correct that there will be lots of
> contenders (perhaps as many as six), then that leaves a very limited pool
> of seller teams. This means trade prices may be higher than they were last
> year.  Buyers beware!
>
>   -- Mark B.
>
>
> On Sun, Mar 19, 2023 at 1:37 PM Jeffrey Winick <jwinick at hwhlegal.com>
> wrote:
>
> Congratulations to everyone on an excellent draft and good luck on what
> should be an outstandingly competitive season.  With the exception of our
> defending champion, Mr. B, this is anyone’s game.  That being said, I have
> consulted the spirit of Pippin and we have our annual assessment of the
> state of play in the USML ready for your perusal.
>
>
>
> *REBUILDERS*
>
> *Block’s Bombers* – History teaches that a Bomber’s lineup filled with
> potential trade pieces does not necessarily set the stage for multiple
> trades and yet, there’s plenty for Mark to work with here.  Stanton, Rizzo,
> Ramirez, Kelenic, Kepler, Ohtani, McKenzie and maybe Neris and Leclerc all
> mean that this team will look different and far better next year.  But
> that’s not the case for the 2023 campaign.  The Bomber’s will not contend
> in 2023.
>
>
>
> *IT COULD BE, IT MIGHT BE…..BUT PROBABLY NOT*
>
>
>
> *Calamari – *A strange team.  Lots of wins, but lousy ERA and Ratio.
> Lots of average, but not much in the way of counting stats.  Pippin doesn’t
> see this as a winning recipe.  Glasnow, DeGrom and McCullers means that Jim
> will be reading a lot of medical reports.  Rodriguez, Gonzales and Perez
> means that Jim will doing a lot of cringing when reading box scores.  On
> the hitting side, the lineup appears to be the epitome of Stars and
> Scrubs.  Guerrero, Devers, Henderson, Perez and Teoscar are great.  Alfaro,
> Schoop, Lopez, Badoo, Carpenter and Pollock….well, Pippin was taught that
> if you don’t have anything nice to say…..  At the end of the day, this is a
> solid team that doesn’t appear to have the potential to pop.  Pippin sees a
> somewhat disappointing season ahead for the Calamari.
>
>
>
> *Brats – *Let’s start with offense.  Or perhaps the better way to say it
> might be….what offense?  Or perhaps, what an offensive offense.  Well….you
> get the point.  Lots of stolen bases at the expense of every other
> category.  Pippin thinks that perhaps John was signaling rebuilding with
> the pickup of Naylor and Noel.  But if not, even Kyle Tucker isn’t going to
> be enough to turn this ship around.  Per usual, Mr. Fruit has put together
> a fine pitching staff, led by Gausman, Gilbert and Ryan.  And Pippin
> foresees this team ending up with the most saves with the shrewd choices of
> Lopez, Munoz and Barlow.  If the Brats are playing for 2023, Pippin thinks
> the offense is going to hold them back.  But if they’re rebuilding, Pippin
> thinks the future looks bright.
>
>
>
> *LuBeasts – *The LuBeasts left Pippin a little confused.  Are they in it
> to win it or are they building for the future?  Bregman and Castillo
> purchases signaled that the Beasts were all in.  Huff and Skubal indicated
> a wait and see approach.  So what is it Frank?  Offense looks weak with
> only stolen bases aggregating to a solid total and the decision to punt
> batting average should have resulted in more power than it did.  But
> punting a category creates opportunity that Pippin expects to see exploited
> soon enough.  The pitching, on the other hand, looks strong.  Bieber,
> Kirby, Manoah and Castillo is the best 1-2-3-4 in the league.  Looks like
> there is too much ground to recover to take home the Damon, but this is
> nonetheless a team that could make some noise.
>
>
>
> *Buddha – *Pippin wants to like this team more, but just can’t get around
> to doing so.  It has great balance, with a decent amount of everything, but
> not a lot of anything other than saves.  The lineup epitomizes Pippin’s
> assessment.  Lots of good players, but not many (if any) great players.
> Plenty of solid production on the offense, but limited potential for
> breakout performances.  And the pitching is perhaps a bit too dependent
> upon two Yankees starters (Cortes and Severino) that are as likely to
> disappoint as they are to please.  So while Pippin sees the ceiling as low,
> it also sees the floor as high.  This may well be a money team, but
> probably not the one who will go home with the Damon.
>
>
>
> *CONTENDERS*
>
>
>
> *Klein Nine – *Along with the Daddies, this team has the best offense
> coming out of the draft.  And if Trout and Buxton actually stay healthy –
> it will lap the field.  Of course, neither has stayed healthy for a very
> long time, but you just don’t know.  It’s the pitching that is this team’s
> Achilles’ heel.  If only it had been Eric Hanson rather than Eric Swanson,
> Pippin would be more bullish (or is that doggish) on Andy’s chances.
> Rasmussen and Detmers are the real deal.  Gray, Berrios and Anderson are
> probably not.  And Kremer, Abreu and Swanson are definitely not.  So, while
> the pitching isn’t a death sentence, neither is it a basis to anticipate
> the Nine grabbing the Damon.  It could happen, but there is one dog that
> will be a little surprised if it does.
>
>
>
> *Berliners *– What the heck was this team thinking spending $107 on
> pitching and not netting a sure thing in the bunch?  Pippin has no answers
> and even after having consulted with team management has no clue.  With
> luck, the pitching could aggregate into a mid level staff, but, this is far
> too much money spent to not walk away with more confidence.  The offense is
> encouraging.  Bader is already feeling better and could be back sooner than
> expected.  That has the potential to make him a bargain.  Julio, Bo and
> Wander bring star power and there’s plenty of production in all of the
> hitting categories with the possible exception of power, but that can be
> addressed in the trade market.  If this isn’t the year, the Berliners
> picked up lots of top beans, albeit ones that are a little young to do much
> more than dream on at this point in time.  A trade or two away from
> relevance.
>
>
>
> *Angry Young Men* – Pippin noted that Uncle Doug pimped the Berliners out
> of no less than 6 players during the draft and did exceedingly well in the
> process.  The team appears to have punted on Saves and Stolen Bases and as
> a result is teeming with great totals in every other category.  Javier,
> Sale, Lopez and Civale form a formidable rotation and if any of Gallo,
> Kiermeier and/or Kike Hernandez produce, they will all be bargains at their
> salaries.  The AYM don’t often engage in extensive trading, but if they can
> pull off a few this year, the Damon could be theirs for the taking.
>
>
>
> *Hoosiers *– The Hoosiers spent their money on hitting and it shows.  A
> bit more speed would have improved this team’s prospects, but you can’t
> quibble with any other aspect of the hitting.  But….when you only spend $48
> on pitching and $20 of that is on your closers, you’ve definitely rolled
> the dice.  Luis Garcia and Robbie Ray are nice anchors for this staff, but
> after that it gets scary.  Schmidt has thrown 70 innings over the last
> three years and may not have a spot in the rotation once (if) Rodon
> returns.  Clevinger isn’t very good and is one more act of misbehavior away
> from a suspension.  Whitlock might offer nice production, but his
> experience of nine career starts suggest he’s a crapshoot.  This team will
> hang in all year long and if it can trade for a pitcher or two could make
> things interesting.  But Pippin prefers the last team on the board….
>
>
>
> *Nukes* – The most daunting team coming out of the draft and heaven
> knows, Rotolab likes this team.  And yet, while Pippin assigns the title of
> pre-season favorite to the Nukes, it is more than a bit wary.  This team is
> comprised of a little (or should we say much) too much risk for Pippin’s
> comfort.  Sure, Cole and Springs are a fantastic foundation to the pitching
> staff, but what about the balance?  Zach Eflin has averaged 80 innings a
> year over the last three years and ended the season with sore knees.  Tyler
> Mahle is a sabermetric darling who never quite delivers and is now working
> through shoulder soreness.  Nick Pivetta is a pitcher that belongs on a
> bench, not in a starting lineup.  James Paxton has pitched 21! innings over
> the last three years and he’s hurt again, and Michael Kopech is coming off
> of knee surgery.  Phew!  Duran and Sewald should put up saves, but neither
> is a lock with Jorge Lopez and Andre Munoz lurking.  The offense on the
> other hand is locked and loaded with only a little bit of injury risk from
> Springer.  With a little good fortune and perhaps a trade or two, this team
> is the one to beat for the Damon.
>
>
>
> That is all!
>
>
>
> Pippin (with a little help from a friend)
>
>
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