[USML Announce] Pippins Nothing But A Dog - 2023 Version

Sun Mar 19 20:44:14 EDT 2023

You buried the lead, Gramps. Congrats!!

-Andy

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Owner, Klein Nine (est. 1990)
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-------- Original Message --------
On Mar 19, 2023, 8:18 PM, Richard Robbins wrote:

> :-)
>
> I started a new job 8 months ago, am a year away from completing a Master's Degree at UC Berkeley (and so far I'm 2 for 2 when it comes to the Big Game, compared to my sons who are a combined 1 for 9), and in May, I will become a grandfather!
>
> On Sun, Mar 19, 2023 at 6:42 PM springkerb--- via Announce <announce at usml.net> wrote:
>
>> We're ready to expand to 11 teams whenever you get bored with whatever you do with your USML time!
>>
>> Mark
>>
>> On Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 03:08:16 PM CDT, Richard Robbins <rerobbins at itinker.net> wrote:
>>
>> Well written. Have a great season everyone.
>>
>> On Sun, Mar 19, 2023 at 2:26 PM Mark Blocker <blockermark at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> Jeff: This is a fun read and a thorough and excellent analysis. I plead guilty to being a Rebuilder -- a deal that was sealed more firmly when Altuve went down. But note that the current estimate is that Altuve will be out 8-10 weeks, which means he is back around June 1 -- just in time for one lucky contender to get a huge infield upgrade. For those who are contending, you know where (and when) to find me. A few additional notes to add. Not about every team.
>>>
>>> 1. Buddha: This still seems like a contender to me. A "decent amount of everything" is a way to stay in the race early, and this team has plenty of chips to trade to move up. If they pull off some deals, this team is a threat for the title. Player that would most help this team: Ohtani.
>>>
>>> 2. Lubeasts: This team is strong in pitching and weak in the easiest categories to address by trade (HR/RBIs), so I would count this as a contender. Especially so if the purchases of Skubal and Huff are for purposes of trade. But both of those are long-time favorites of the owner, so color me skeptical that they will get moved. Without them, the other contenders will simply have more trade chips than this team. Player(s) that would most help this team: J. Ramirez and Stanton.
>>>
>>> 3. Klein Nine: A question: how many points will it take to win The Damon? Let's assume it takes 85 points (last year the winning total was 88, but probably will be lower this year with more teams contending). This team projects to have 36 points in hitting (low in average and SB). That means it needs 49 points from pitching and improvements to the offense. That seems like a tall order for the current roster. If Berrios returns to form, this team will have a better chance to hit that number. Player that would most help this team: T. McKenizie.
>>>
>>> 4. AYM: Maybe the best draft of anyone at the table (Doug, kudos to you for using the Rotolab software). Agree with Jeff's assessment on SBs, but the other category is Saves/Holds, not just saves, and this roster seems geared to secure lots of holds. And saves is another category where you can easily acquire help later on, either via trade or by FAAB. How many closers each year come from the ranks of the FAAB pool? Player that would most help this team: Altuve, Rizzo.
>>>
>>> 5. Nukes: Agreed that this team is the pre-season favorite. I am attributing that to his willingness to accept "suggestions" on which player to nominate during the draft. That was smart and classy, and now we will see if that is the secret sauce to winning a title. Player that would most help this team: Ohtani.
>>>
>>> 6. Overall: If the assessment is correct that there will be lots of contenders (perhaps as many as six), then that leaves a very limited pool of seller teams. This means trade prices may be higher than they were last year. Buyers beware!
>>>
>>> -- Mark B.
>>>
>>> On Sun, Mar 19, 2023 at 1:37 PM Jeffrey Winick <jwinick at hwhlegal.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Congratulations to everyone on an excellent draft and good luck on what should be an outstandingly competitive season. With the exception of our defending champion, Mr. B, this is anyone’s game. That being said, I have consulted the spirit of Pippin and we have our annual assessment of the state of play in the USML ready for your perusal.
>>>>
>>>> REBUILDERS
>>>>
>>>> Block’s Bombers – History teaches that a Bomber’s lineup filled with potential trade pieces does not necessarily set the stage for multiple trades and yet, there’s plenty for Mark to work with here. Stanton, Rizzo, Ramirez, Kelenic, Kepler, Ohtani, McKenzie and maybe Neris and Leclerc all mean that this team will look different and far better next year. But that’s not the case for the 2023 campaign. The Bomber’s will not contend in 2023.
>>>>
>>>> IT COULD BE, IT MIGHT BE…..BUT PROBABLY NOT
>>>>
>>>> Calamari – A strange team. Lots of wins, but lousy ERA and Ratio. Lots of average, but not much in the way of counting stats. Pippin doesn’t see this as a winning recipe. Glasnow, DeGrom and McCullers means that Jim will be reading a lot of medical reports. Rodriguez, Gonzales and Perez means that Jim will doing a lot of cringing when reading box scores. On the hitting side, the lineup appears to be the epitome of Stars and Scrubs. Guerrero, Devers, Henderson, Perez and Teoscar are great. Alfaro, Schoop, Lopez, Badoo, Carpenter and Pollock….well, Pippin was taught that if you don’t have anything nice to say….. At the end of the day, this is a solid team that doesn’t appear to have the potential to pop. Pippin sees a somewhat disappointing season ahead for the Calamari.
>>>>
>>>> Brats – Let’s start with offense. Or perhaps the better way to say it might be….what offense? Or perhaps, what an offensive offense. Well….you get the point. Lots of stolen bases at the expense of every other category. Pippin thinks that perhaps John was signaling rebuilding with the pickup of Naylor and Noel. But if not, even Kyle Tucker isn’t going to be enough to turn this ship around. Per usual, Mr. Fruit has put together a fine pitching staff, led by Gausman, Gilbert and Ryan. And Pippin foresees this team ending up with the most saves with the shrewd choices of Lopez, Munoz and Barlow. If the Brats are playing for 2023, Pippin thinks the offense is going to hold them back. But if they’re rebuilding, Pippin thinks the future looks bright.
>>>>
>>>> LuBeasts – The LuBeasts left Pippin a little confused. Are they in it to win it or are they building for the future? Bregman and Castillo purchases signaled that the Beasts were all in. Huff and Skubal indicated a wait and see approach. So what is it Frank? Offense looks weak with only stolen bases aggregating to a solid total and the decision to punt batting average should have resulted in more power than it did. But punting a category creates opportunity that Pippin expects to see exploited soon enough. The pitching, on the other hand, looks strong. Bieber, Kirby, Manoah and Castillo is the best 1-2-3-4 in the league. Looks like there is too much ground to recover to take home the Damon, but this is nonetheless a team that could make some noise.
>>>>
>>>> Buddha – Pippin wants to like this team more, but just can’t get around to doing so. It has great balance, with a decent amount of everything, but not a lot of anything other than saves. The lineup epitomizes Pippin’s assessment. Lots of good players, but not many (if any) great players. Plenty of solid production on the offense, but limited potential for breakout performances. And the pitching is perhaps a bit too dependent upon two Yankees starters (Cortes and Severino) that are as likely to disappoint as they are to please. So while Pippin sees the ceiling as low, it also sees the floor as high. This may well be a money team, but probably not the one who will go home with the Damon.
>>>>
>>>> CONTENDERS
>>>>
>>>> Klein Nine – Along with the Daddies, this team has the best offense coming out of the draft. And if Trout and Buxton actually stay healthy – it will lap the field. Of course, neither has stayed healthy for a very long time, but you just don’t know. It’s the pitching that is this team’s Achilles’ heel. If only it had been Eric Hanson rather than Eric Swanson, Pippin would be more bullish (or is that doggish) on Andy’s chances. Rasmussen and Detmers are the real deal. Gray, Berrios and Anderson are probably not. And Kremer, Abreu and Swanson are definitely not. So, while the pitching isn’t a death sentence, neither is it a basis to anticipate the Nine grabbing the Damon. It could happen, but there is one dog that will be a little surprised if it does.
>>>>
>>>> Berliners – What the heck was this team thinking spending $107 on pitching and not netting a sure thing in the bunch? Pippin has no answers and even after having consulted with team management has no clue. With luck, the pitching could aggregate into a mid level staff, but, this is far too much money spent to not walk away with more confidence. The offense is encouraging. Bader is already feeling better and could be back sooner than expected. That has the potential to make him a bargain. Julio, Bo and Wander bring star power and there’s plenty of production in all of the hitting categories with the possible exception of power, but that can be addressed in the trade market. If this isn’t the year, the Berliners picked up lots of top beans, albeit ones that are a little young to do much more than dream on at this point in time. A trade or two away from relevance.
>>>>
>>>> Angry Young Men – Pippin noted that Uncle Doug pimped the Berliners out of no less than 6 players during the draft and did exceedingly well in the process. The team appears to have punted on Saves and Stolen Bases and as a result is teeming with great totals in every other category. Javier, Sale, Lopez and Civale form a formidable rotation and if any of Gallo, Kiermeier and/or Kike Hernandez produce, they will all be bargains at their salaries. The AYM don’t often engage in extensive trading, but if they can pull off a few this year, the Damon could be theirs for the taking.
>>>>
>>>> Hoosiers – The Hoosiers spent their money on hitting and it shows. A bit more speed would have improved this team’s prospects, but you can’t quibble with any other aspect of the hitting. But….when you only spend $48 on pitching and $20 of that is on your closers, you’ve definitely rolled the dice. Luis Garcia and Robbie Ray are nice anchors for this staff, but after that it gets scary. Schmidt has thrown 70 innings over the last three years and may not have a spot in the rotation once (if) Rodon returns. Clevinger isn’t very good and is one more act of misbehavior away from a suspension. Whitlock might offer nice production, but his experience of nine career starts suggest he’s a crapshoot. This team will hang in all year long and if it can trade for a pitcher or two could make things interesting. But Pippin prefers the last team on the board….
>>>>
>>>> Nukes – The most daunting team coming out of the draft and heaven knows, Rotolab likes this team. And yet, while Pippin assigns the title of pre-season favorite to the Nukes, it is more than a bit wary. This team is comprised of a little (or should we say much) too much risk for Pippin’s comfort. Sure, Cole and Springs are a fantastic foundation to the pitching staff, but what about the balance? Zach Eflin has averaged 80 innings a year over the last three years and ended the season with sore knees. Tyler Mahle is a sabermetric darling who never quite delivers and is now working through shoulder soreness. Nick Pivetta is a pitcher that belongs on a bench, not in a starting lineup. James Paxton has pitched 21! innings over the last three years and he’s hurt again, and Michael Kopech is coming off of knee surgery. Phew! Duran and Sewald should put up saves, but neither is a lock with Jorge Lopez and Andre Munoz lurking. The offense on the other hand is locked and loaded with only a little bit of injury risk from Springer. With a little good fortune and perhaps a trade or two, this team is the one to beat for the Damon.
>>>>
>>>> That is all!
>>>>
>>>> Pippin (with a little help from a friend)
>>>>
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