[USML Announce] Bad (but not unexpected) News for K-9, Good News for The King

[Brad Jansen]

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Baseball HQ <baseballhq at fantasysportsventures.com>
Date: Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 2:01 PM
Subject: Baseball HQ Daily News and Analysis Preview
To: bljansen at gmail.com


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March 14, 2011
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Playing Time Today - Monday

*Kris Olson - March 14, 2011*

------------------------------

*Dice-K rolling snake eyes*

?Let's just admit it was an expensive mistake and move on.?

So reads part of the 2011 *Baseball Forecaster* analysis of Red Sox
starter Daisuke
Matsuzaka <http://t.ymlp53.net/usmazajshafahjhjaaaquj/click.php>(RHP, BOS).
Word this weekend was that the Red Sox were prepared to do just that via a
trade, though GM Theo Epstein was quick to deny the reports.

Due to Matsuzaka?s salary and no-trade clause, a deal will be difficult;
however, it would be hard to assume the Japanese hurler?s role as Boston?s
fifth starter is etched in stone, given his spring results and reports that
his velocity is down.

As for other options, local scribes have noted that 44-year-old
knuckleballer Tim
Wakefield<http://t.ymlp53.net/usjarajshafahjhjaaaquj/click.php>(RHP,
BOS) is an ill fit for the bullpen, and the Sox also have Alfredo
Aceves<http://t.ymlp53.net/usbaxajshatahjhjataquj/click.php> (RHP,
BOS), who made waves in 2009 with a 10-1 record in 84 innings for the
Yankees, and posted a 3.54 ERA and 1.01 WHIP that were largely supported by
strong skills (3.87 xERA, 100 BPV).

How do their projected skills for 2011 match up?

Player      xERA   Ctl   Dom   Cmd  BPV

=========   ====   ===   ===   ===  ===

Aceves      3.92   2.5   6.2   2.5   68

Wakefield   4.91   3.2   5.2   1.6   24

Matzusaka   4.37   4.3   8.1   1.9   43

This spring, Wakefield has posted the best stats of the contenders (2.70 ERA
in 6 2/3 IP, compared to Aceves? 3.68 in 7 1/3 IP and Matzusaka?s 11.42 in 8
2/3 IP) and he has a reputation for hot streaks that should be ridden for
all they?re worth. However, his skills say he is a poor bet for long-term
success. Even if named to the rotation to start the year, owners will want
to steer clear of Wakefield, a recommendation that holds for Matzusaka as
well.

By contrast, Aceves? skills say he might have a bit better chance to
succeed, though 2009?s small sample size and Aceves? ?F? health grade urge a
minimal investment at best. More likely, the fifth-starter role for the Red
Sox will be a season-long revolving door.

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*Teahen* *pulls even with Morel*

Before Spring Training began, many believed the White Sox 3B job was for Brett
Morel <http://t.ymlp53.net/uswarajshazahjhjanaquj/click.php> (3B, CHW) to
lose. Thus far this spring, he has done just that. Or, perhaps it?s better
to say veteran Mark
Teahen<http://t.ymlp53.net/usqaoajshazahjhjalaquj/click.php> (3B,
CHW) has pulled even, hitting .474 to Morel?s .143 through Saturday.

Proj 2011   BB%   CT%   Eye   xBA   PX   Spd  BPV

=========   ===   ===  ====   ===   ==   ===  ===

Morel        4%   85%  0.31   271   88   102   45

Teahen       8%   74%  0.35   258   98   103   17

Morel?s edge in ct% is significant, but the rest of his skills are not so
far ahead of Teahen?s, at least at this stage in the 23-year-old Morel?s
career. The White Sox would not be sacrificing too much by giving him more
seasoning at Triple-A.

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